Guineas Trials at Leopardstown - Who To Watch

Our work on the Guineas analysis began before Cheltenham, but has been put on the back burner until post-Aintree. However, it's Guineas trials day at Leopardstown today, and these are the races which need to be watched in order to be able to make a good judgement come that weekend in Newmarket.

We've already given our opinion on the 2000 Guineas trial - siding with notebook entry from last July, Indian Maharaja. However, putting betting aside for today, I was trying to fit notes about other horses under the post. It wasn't really working, so here's our "what to watch" guide to the Guineas trials at Leopardstown.

Starting with the boys at 3.10. A detailed preview of our notebook horse Indian Maharaja is available in the last post. To sum it up, he has looked extremely classy on his first two starts but has had practically no competition. He looks like he's suited to longer than the mile and the Derby could be the long-term goal rather than the Guineas. If he beats a better field today than on his last two outings, it will probably be time to sit up and take notice with regard to his chances in the Classics.

His main opponent, and the horse who now looks like he could possibly go off as the favourite, is Shining Emerald. Hailing from the yard of Paul Deegan who is currently in flying form, he is a huge danger to Indian Maharaja considering the confirmation of the ground as being soft-heavy this morning. On numbers alone, his form of 23113 is probably best in the race considering he has more experience than the unbeaten Indian Maharaja. However, although he might be a big player at a listed race in March at Leopardstown, it's doubtful that he's a Guineas contender unless he pulls off something brilliant between now and then.

Ebanoran has just one run to his name, an impressive debut at the Curragh last October in which he looked a smart type. His breeding is strong and it's a good sign in my book that John Oxx has put him into a Guineas trial, a race which will be a big step up for Ebanoran. His current Guineas odds are 40/1 - expect them to plummet if he runs the same race today as he did on his sole previous start.

Buonarroti looks like he could be a lovely 3yo, but the jury's still out on what his ideal trip would be. He has a bit still to do if he wants to be a classic winner, yet his 5th last time out in the Racing Post Trophy was very much worth noting. One to watch carefully today.

Go For Goal ran very well in a good handicap in the Curragh just last week, so if any of his opponents today need the run, he could take advantage of their faults.

At 3.45, our attention turns to the girls - The 1000 Guineas trial. There's possibly a higher standard here, and the race truly does have the potential to produce a Guineas winner. Heading the betting is Balansiya, a Dermot Weld hopeful who is definitely in the mix for the Guineas at this stage, based on her one start to date, at Leopardstown over 7f last November. It's hard to tell at this stage exactly what she beat, but there's no doubt that she did it in style. The ground could be a bit slow for her today, but I doubt that will be a problem in Newmarket in May. 16/1 for the Guineas could look big after today - 20/1 could look massive.

Aidan O'Brien's Bracelet was similarly impressive when winning here on her last start 9 months ago. However, you would suspect that she wants a longer trip and we could see her shine in the Oaks at Epsom next June. I'm not sure that the Guineas and its one mile is her ideal race.

Avenue Gabriel is of interest today at 6/1 - she has been hugely consistent since her first start as a 2yo in June 2013, and has run to a very high standard on her four starts since. I wouldn't hesitate in backing her each-way today and I think she is a serious prospect for this trial. For the actual Guineas, she hasn't even entered the betting at this stage. That could all change today, of course.

Marvellous will also be of interest more over a longer trip - she could excel over 1m 2f, based on her one appearance to date, at Navan last year over a mile. Aidan O'Brien is likely to put her over this optimum distance later on in the year. O'Brien also has Sparrow entered, a quickly progressive horse who is of interest for an e/w bet, considering her price of 16/1. 40/1 for the Guineas would tempt me to get involved - 80/1 on the exchanges is insulting and worth a small each way bet considering her rapid progression to date. You might point out that we refuse to back the so far fantastic Indian Maharaja for the 2000 based on his form not being backed up, but don't mind backing an 80/1 shot for the 1000. It's simply a matter of value.

Whatever you end up backing at Leopardstown today, Newmarket on the first weekend of May, or further down the road, the very best of luck and remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.

Indian Maharaja 2/1 win 3.10 Leopardstown (selected last night at 9/4)
Avenue Gabriel 6/1 e/w 3.45 Leopardstown
Sparrow 16/1 e/w 3.45 Leopardstown
Sparrow 80/1 e/w 1000 Guineas (small ante post bet)

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Indian Maharaja

Last July, at the end of our preview and selections for the July Gold Cup, we included a notebook entry for an Aidan O'Brien horse who had just won his maiden over a mile at Gowran impressively, finishing 6 1/2 lengths ahead of the field and then going for a gallop after the finish line.

Indian Maharaja's breeding is fantastic, by Galileo and out of former Irish 1000 Guineas winner Again. At the time, our hope was that he would go on to contest the Racing Post Trophy over a mile in October, and emulate Camelot's path to the Derby. The only issue we pointed out at the time was that the race he won at Gowran possibly carried no talent and was not solid form.

Unfortunately, it's fair to say that our fears were confirmed with no horse from the race (other than Indian Maharaja) going on to even attempt anything bigger. Although not going on to contest the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy, O'Brien did send Indian Maharaja out again last season - in a listed race over 7f in Tipperary last August. Again, he won, this time by 3l (at an SP of 3/10, he was never a bet for us as his form hadn't been confirmed).

The future form from this race is also disappointing. 3rd on the day, Fly To The Moon, managed to win a 13k handicap at the Curragh last week, and 6th of 6 that day, Boom The Groom, came 3rd in a listed handicap last August. Other than that, there has been no sign that Indian Maharaja has faced any formidable challenges so far in his career.

With this in mind, I'm not interested in bscking him ante-post for the 2000 Guineas or the Derby yet. Paddy Power are the only bookmakers who offer odds on him to win the Guineas, and 16/1 is fairly flattering considering what he's beaten. I'm not convinced that he is a 1m horse and the Derby is more likely to be his Classic, but at 16/1 (20/1 on the exchanges), he's not currently back-able for that either.

Unfortunately, Indian Maharaja won't have too much to beat again today at Leopardstown, despite the opposition being a lot stronger than on his last two outings. He is one of only two listed winners in the race (the other being Shining Emerald, the main danger who will relish the ground and whose stable is in fine form). I would much rather see him in a more competitive race, to give us an idea of where we stand going into the Classics. However, Buonarroti was 5th in the Racing Post Trophy last year and could be a good 3yo this season, so he's not without competition.

Simply focusing on the task in hand, he could be a decent betting prospect today. I'm very confident that he should handle the soft to heavy ground without any trouble, and, although his past form can't be backed up, he simply looks to be the best horse visually in what is not a brilliant Guineas trial.

Aidan O'Brien hasn't had a terrific start to this flat season, with most of his runners tiring towards the end and looking like they need the run. If Indian Maharaja does the same and his odds for the 2000 Guineas or the Derby lengthen greatly, I might have a small each way bet. If he wins today, unless very visually impressive, I wouldn't expect his ante post odds to shorten too much as it's not a very classy field.

If his odds today were similar to the 3/10 on offer prior to his last win, I'd probably be sitting this one out, as although I think he'll win, I don't think that that price represented any value. However, 9/4 is in my opinion a very attractive price and I would suspect that it could be a huge one compared to his SP.

As for the ante post for the Classics, I won't be having a bet yet, but if he does show his class again at Leopardstown against a stronger field, maybe we will have to sit up and take notice. It all remains to be seen...

Back: Indian Maharaja at 9/4 - 3.10 Leopardstown

On a separate note, Ebanoran looked a smart type when winning his debut in the Curragh. One worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks.

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Update 9.40am Sunday:
Market is good,  he was backed heavily last night. Into 7/4 with most firms, 2/1 Bet365 and BetVictor.

Lincoln Handicap Trends Analysis

The flat is truly back today with some great action at Doncaster, and also the richest race in the world in Dubai. The Lincoln Handicap will be the highlight of the day in this part of the world, a massive betting race which signals the beginning of the flat season. Anyone who was following us over the last flat season will remember the tremendous success of our trends analysis, which threw up lovely profits throughout the season last year. Last week, we messed around a bit with other types of trends ratings, which gave us a 25/1 4th in the Winter Derby, and a 40/1 shot in the Irish Lincolnshire who unseated his rider coming out of the stalls. This week, we decided to analyse the Lincoln with the old-style trends analysis, and present to you the full analysis as we did last year. Here it is...

1. Stall

Stall	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	3	18%	3	18%	6	35%
2	17	0	0%	5	29%	5	29%
3	17	1	6%	2	12%	3	18%
4	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
5	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
6	17	1	6%	5	29%	6	35%
7	16	1	6%	4	25%	5	31%
8	17	1	6%	1	6%	2	12%
9	17	2	12%	1	6%	3	18%
10	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
11	16	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
12	16	2	13%	4	25%	6	38%
13	17	1	6%	1	6%	2	12%
14	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
15	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
16	16	2	13%	2	13%	4	25%
17	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
18	17	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
19	17	0	0%	2	12%	2	12%
20	17	0	0%	2	12%	2	12%
21	16	1	6%	3	19%	4	25%
22	14	0	0%	1	7%	1	7%

Based on these figures, we're going to watch out for stalls 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 12, 16 and 21.

2. Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	46	5	11%	13	28%	18	39%
Second	52	2	4%	4	8%	6	12%
Sixth	28	1	4%	5	18%	6	21%
Seventh	24	0	0%	5	21%	5	21%
Eighth	23	1	4%	6	26%	7	30%
Ninth	29	2	7%	2	7%	4	14%
Tenth	13	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
Eleventh	15	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
Twelfth	12	1	8%	0	0%	1	8%
Fourteenth	6	1	17%	0	0%	1	17%
Fifteenth	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%
Seventeenth	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Based on these figures, we're watching for horses who came 1st, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 14th or 15th last time out.

3. Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	19	6	32%	3	16%	9	47%
2	20	1	5%	6	30%	7	35%
3	16	1	6%	2	13%	3	19%
4	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
5	20	1	5%	8	40%	9	45%
6	22	0	0%	5	23%	5	23%
7	19	1	5%	1	5%	2	11%
8	16	0	0%	5	31%	5	31%
9	17	1	6%	0	0%	1	6%
10	18	1	6%	2	11%	3	17%
11	16	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
12	23	2	9%	1	4%	3	13%
13	13	0	0%	5	38%	5	38%
14	25	1	4%	1	4%	2	8%
15	11	1	9%	1	9%	2	18%
16	13	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
17	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
18	22	0	0%	1	5%	1	5%
19	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Form

These are a collection of simpler trends based on form:

4. 8 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season

5. 8 of the last 10 winners won 1 of their last 4 starts

6. 10 of the last 10 winners had 2-4 career wins

7. 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m+

The Big Table

Basically, we now give a point to each horse for each trend they fit. And here's how they look when we do:

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Chookie Royale	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	4
Tullius	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Levitate	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Ocean Tempest	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	4
Burano	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
Mezzotint	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Hi There	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	3
Sweet Lightning	No	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	2
One Word More	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	4
Spas Dancer	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	5
Tres Coronas	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	3
Whispering Warrior	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	4
Robert The Painter	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	4
Balty Boys	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Gabrials Kaka	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Jacks Revenge	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	3
Unsinkable	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	3
Consign	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	4
Off Art	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6

So, as you can see, the joint winners are Gabrials Kaka and Off Art.

Gabrials Kaka: One of the dangers of only doing this analysis on the day of the race is that the price could be gone by the time you find your horse. Worst case scenario is that the winner has been Pricewised, which, unfortunately, is the case this morning with Gabrials Kaka, who is now the 7/1 favourite for the race after his price collapsed, thanks to Mr Segal.

Off Art: It's slightly dodgy here, as Off Art shouldn't technically pick up the points for market position. He's currently the second favourite while Tullius is 3rd, but they are neck and neck in the betting and there is every chance that Off Art will end up being 3rd in the market, with plenty of money coming in for Tullius. Therefore, I had to award him the points for 3rd in the market.

The bets:

1pt win on Gabrials Kaka 8/1

1pt win on Off Art 8/1

If you would rather stick with last year's staking system by putting 0.5pt e/w on these two, as they are longer than 4/1, feel free to do so (Bet365, 88Sport and William Hill are among the bookmakers offering 5 e/w places). However, the returns can be minimal and last year we certainly would have done better if backing them to win. We will keep a record of P/L on both systems.

As always, the very best of luck and remember to only bet what you can afford to lose.

As usual, Bet365 have a host of offers for today's racing, including the fact that they're paying out on 5 each-way places in the Lincoln. You can receive a 100% deposit bonus when signing up, to the fee of €200 or £200. To sign up, simply click here.

Grand National Ante-Post Bets

Since Davy Russel was reduced to speechlessness after winning the Gold Cup on Lord Windermere, the logical minds and romantic imaginations of jumps racing fans have turned to a three-day banquet of racing at Aintree - the legendary Grand National meeting. A few days ago, we posted our initial Grand National ratings. If you don't remember or didn't see, here's a reminder of the top of the ratings:

94 Godsmejudge
94 Raz De Maree
91 Burton Port
91 Pineau De Re
86 Katenko
86 Lion na Bearnai
86 Same Difference
86 Saint Are
86 Quinz
85 Across The Bay
85 Prince De Beauchene
85 Monbeg Dude
85 Night In Milan
85 Theres no Panic

So, since then we've been doing analysis on the horses at the top of our ratings (it should be noted that horses are rated only on their suitability to win the National, not their talent). The idea behind this is a long-held belief which I think was probably first publicized by the one and only Nick Mordin, who claimed that because the race is so unique, basing your betting decisions on a horse's form is pointless. Mordin has been very successful with this method over the years, as have several other punters who based their strategy on his.

However, once we've given the horses these ratings based on, among other things, trends, preparation, and how they fit the profile of a Grand National-winning horse, it is necessary to have a look at form. And so, we've taken a look at the top 4 horses in our ratings. And it's looking good...

Godsmejudge
A Scottish National win along is a fantastic piece of form to have going into the Merseyside Marathon, and our top-rated horse having it is a huge confidence boost. The National may no longer be the test of jumping that it used to be (we will have a much clearer picture after this year's race), but it's still a huge test of stamina, as is the Scottish version. The ground is generally similar in the two races, and, as mentioned by Timeform as they picked our horse (another confidence boost?) both have a slight bias towards prominent runners. So, a good run in the Scottish Grand National can be very helpful when travelling to Aintree the following year, as shown by Auroras Encore in 2013. A win, on the other hand, could be invaluable.

Fortunately for us, Godsmejudge has both under his belt. At Ayr, he led from a long way out and stayed on very strongly to get the win, as well as jumping brilliantly. Even the greatest opponent to ante-post betting would have forgiven you for having a flutter on Godsmejudge for the English National a full year out after seeing his Scottish performance. But to do so would have been wholly unnecessary considering the attractive 28/1 which is on offer now.

He has, however, been pulled up in his last two starts - the second of which occurred in the Grimthorpe and is slightly worrying. At the time, it was reported that there was something not right, and he was a doubt for Aintree. So, we have to decide whether we're prepared to overlook this one setback in order to take the price of 28/1. At the moment, I am.

Raz De Maree
The Grand National has often been a race to throw up a good story for the journalists and romantics, and if Raz De Maree was to win this year for Dessie Hughes after the stable lost its stuperstar hurdler Our Conor at the Cheltenham festival, it would be sure to be an memorable victory similar to those of Red Rum and Aldaniti.

The horse's odds are very attractive - 50/1, to be precise. Based on our ratings, where he's joint top, he could easily be overpriced and underrated. He won two good races last year by staying very well. As mentioned, the Grand National is as much a test of stamina as it has ever been, and Raz De Maree has copious amounts of stamina. Both of these wins came on heavy ground, which is highly unlikely to be present for the National. However, his form on good ground holds up too - he came 2nd in September 2012 to 2013 Irish National winner Liberty Council in a 3m 1f handicap chase at Kilbeggan.

This year, it's been all about the National, and Dessie Hughes must think he's in with a chance as he seems to have been campaigning him all season with this in mind. At 50/1, I would be more than happy to have a bet. He's currently ranked 44th (the top 40 will run) and this means he should get in due to withdrawals elsewhere.

Burton Port
Burton Port is a horse that many people will remember fondly from two years ago. He looked to be one of the most promising horses in National Hunt racing as a novice, when he came 2nd in the RSA at Cheltenham and followed up with a win at Aintree. He went on then to come 2nd in a Hennessy and 4th in the Gold Cup behind Synchronised. However, a hind leg tendon injury then forced him to take a break for all of 18 months, and since coming back, the formlines haven't looked great; 509-82. Not great, maybe, but possibly progressive.

What makes Burton Port interesting is his mark. At his peak, he was rated at 166, and the drop to 145 is a huge one. Jonjo O'Neill is putting a lot of faith in him by throwing him in here after some sub-standard perofrmances. He has had a wind operation which could possibly make a difference and bring him back to past form, and back at his best off such a low mark, Burton Port could be a real danger going into the National.

We're relying here on him pulling something off and getting back to good form on the biggest stage yet, and hopefully the wind operation might be just the thing to bring about that change. There has been some strong market support since the weights were announced, with plenty of shrewd punters realising the threat he poses if back to his best off a low mark. At 33/1, he's a good horse to have on your side.

Pineau De Re
Pineau De Re had a very good run in the Pertemps as his final piece of Aintree preparation, coming 3rd by a very small margin in a strong fielded handicap. His improvement has been clear since changing stables, winning a good handicap chase at Exeter prior to the Pertemps. He's going into this race in very good form and could have a strong chance if his rapid improvement under Richard Newland continues.

Pineau De Re has run over the National fences in the past - in the Becher Chase last December, when he fell at the eighth fence. However, jockey on the day Brian Hughes felt that they could take plenty of positives from the race. He claimed that he felt slightly novicey and will have learned from the run.

He's normally a very strong and reliable jumper and will be well able for good or soft ground at Aintree according to past form. It remains to be seen whether he will stay the full four and a half miles but his win over 3m 4f in the Ulster National last April should give hope on that account.

Again, I wouldn't hesitate to back him at this stage at 20/1.

Bets
So, we have our four ante-post Grand National bets:
Godsmejudge at 28/1
Raz De Maree at 50/1
Burton Port at 33/1
Pineau De Re at 20/1

As always, the best of luck and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Grand National Initial Ratings

So, it won't be too long until the 2014 Aintree Grand National and the year's biggest betting event. Run over 4m 4f with the toughest jumps in racing (or at least, they used to be), and with 40 horses competing every year, the race can be a nightmare to try to analyse, and a lottery when it takes place.

Due to the sheer amount of horses participating (it's currently only narrowed down to around 70), it can be extremely difficult to carry out analysis of the race. Doing so is painstakingly slow and so the majority of our analysis will come after the field has been narrowed a bit more. However, we have already rated the horses still in the race based on whether or not they fit the profile of a National winner. It should be noted that this is based on more of a statistical viewpoint than an examination on the talent of the horses - that will come later. Also, I'd like to stress that they're called initial ratings because a lot will change between now and Grand National day.

Here are the initial ratings in descending order:

94 Godsmejudge 

94 Raz De Maree 

91 Burton Port 

91 Pineau De Re 

86 Katenko 

86 Lion na Bearnai 

86 Same Difference 

86 Saint Are 

86 Quinz 

85 Across The Bay 

85 Prince De Beauchene 

85 Monbeg Dude 

85 Night In Milan 

85 Theres no Panic 

79 Quito De La Roque 

78 Big Shu 

78 Tranquil Sea 

78 Any Currency 

77 Teaforthree 

77 Battle Group 

77 Twirling Magnet 

77 The Package 

77 Shakalakaboomboom 

77 Soll 

77 Wyck Hill 

77 Storm Survivor 

77 Tour Des Champs 

76 Sunnyhillboy 

76 Mountainous 

76 Alvarado 

70 Long Run 

69 Tidal Bay 

69 Triolo D'Alene 

69 Colbert Station 

69 Golan Way 

69 Alfie Sherrin 

68 Balthazar King 

68 Double Seven 

68 Kruzhlinin 

68 Gullible Gordon 

68 Victrix Gale 

67 Baile Anrai 

66 Last Time D'Albain 

66 Goonyella 

65 Out Now 

61 Wayward Prince 

61 Vintage Star 

61 Chance Du Roy 

60 Bog Warrior 

60 Buckers Bridge 

60 The Rainbow Hunter 

60 Lost Glory 

60 Court By Surprise 

59 Sir Du Bearn 

59 Merlins Wish 

58 Mr Moonshine 

58 One In A Milan 

53 Roi Du Mee 

53 Swing Bill 

52 Mossey Joe 

51 Rose Of The Moon 

51 Minella For Value 

51 Quiscover Fontaine 

51 Standing Ovation 

50 Hunt Ball 

45 Solix 

44 Our Father 

44 Hawkes Point 

42 Rocky Creek 

42 Vesper Bell 

41 Walkon 

34 Sergeant Pink 

Make what you will of these. It's far from all the Grand National work we'll be doing and I won't be backing anything yet based on these ratings. However, the top 4 may be of interest, and it could well be worth noting if something you had your eye on this far out is down the bottom half of the ratings.

Irish Lincolnshire Trends Ratings

The Irish flat season well and truly gets underway at the Curragh tomorrow with the 21-field Irish Lincolnshire handicap taking center stage. The race has thrown up plenty of surprises in the past, with winners at starting prices of 25/1, 33/1 and 20/1 in the last few years, so we shouldn't be afraid to backa big-priced outsider... and, by the looks of things, we won't be.

Yesterday, our new-style trends ratings (which are currently on trial on the flat before the season really gets into full swing) was unlucky to miss out on place money with 25/1 shot Dick Doughtywylie in the Winter Derby, who finished 4th. Grandeur, however, our other bet, was disappointing and couldn't overcome a wide draw, and that puts us in a 4 point deficit at the end of the day. You may have noticed we've doubled the stakes from last year, but ultimately, whether we are in profit or loss will be the same as if we were staking 1pt per selection.

Today, we're going to analyse the race using both methods - last year's and this year's. This is to see which trends analysis system is giving us the best results, and this will be the one used throughout the rest of what is sure to be an exciting season.

New Style

So, first for the new trends ratings. Here are the main trends we used, without boring you with the details:

• 8 of 10 winners were having their first flat start of the year
• 7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last turf start
• 9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 career flat wins
• 10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M 2F
• 9 of 10 winners had not won a race worth more than 15K
• 9 of 10 winners had won a race on ground softer than good

And here were the results:

1. Diesel Ten 40/1 (BetVictor and Bet365) - 85 
2. Stuccodor 5/1 (Racebets) - 81
3. Shipyard  17/2 (BetVictor) - 79

Old Style

You may remember how we did the trends analysis last season on the old blog. We analysed and crunched the data surrounding three main areas - the draw, the horse's place last time out, and the market positions - and then added in trends surrounding recent form. Every horse was simply awarded one point for every criteria they fitted.

We worked with the same form trends as in the new style ratings, but we left out the second because it clashes with the place last time out trend. Here are the scores:

1. Diesel Ten 40/1 - 7
2. Afonso De Sousa, Stuccodor, Cheval Rouge, Shipyard - 6

So...

The trends all point towards a massive upset with 40/1 shot Diesel Ten the winner in both cases. So:

1 pt e/w on Diesel Ten 40/1 - 4.40 Curragh
(Bet365 are offering that price and you can sign up for an account with them below to take advantage of their special offers and free bets.)

The very best of luck as always, and remember to only bet what you can afford to lose.

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Winter Derby Trends Ratings.

The flat is back! It's hard to believe that it's only one week since Cheltenham, but already we look forward to the oncoming flat season and speculate as to what surprises it might hold. And the first sign of the flat: The Winter Derby at Lingfield, the year's first group race run on the flat in Britain.

Last year's flat season was a successful one for The Parade Ring with our trends analysis providing us with plenty of winners and staying comfortably in profit throughout the season. Although this analysis isn't the same as last year's (yet), we've decided to try a slightly different type of trends analysis. If the results are good, we may stick with this throughout the season. If not, don't worry, the old-fashioned trends analysis will be back.

Without boring you with the details, here are the main trends we worked with:

• 6 of 10 winners won last time out
• 10 of 10 had won a race that year or were having their first start that year
• 8 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further 
• 10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather
• 6 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield
• 10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above
• 10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 14K+

And here are the top-rated horses:

1. Dick Doughtywylie 25/1 & Grandeur 7/4 - 101
2. Farraaj 11/2 - 91
3. Rebellious Guest 16/1 - 84

So, it looks like the market has it right with the favourite, but possibly wrong with an 18/1 shot who rates the same as Grandeur based on trends? Grandeur looks to be a very, very popular favourite in the betting, and if he can overcome his wide draw in stall 14 of 14, the race could be his for the taking. Dick Doughtywylie won the Quebec Stakes over course and distance last December and would make a good each-way bet even before seeing the trends ratings.

A bet on the two of these looks on the cards, and although we wouldn't normally recommend a points system, one may be necessary to keep track of how this goes over the all-weather. So, very simply:

2pts win on Grandeur (7/4)

1pt e/w on Dick Doughtywylie (25/1)*

*Dick Doughtywylie has drifted to a massive 25/1 (Update: 2.30 Saturday)

As always, the very best of luck, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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Cheltenham 2015 - Gold Cup

So, we may have left off back at Day 1, but let's skip ahead to the big one. 2014 was the year of the upset, as the race billed as a two-horse affair was won after a stewards inquiry by a 25/1 shot, with neither of the aforementioned two horses managing to place. What of next year? The betting markets are strong already, with shrewd punters keen to have themselves in a good position for Cheltenham's biggest event from a long way out.

At the top of the market is Bobs Worth 10/1, bidding to reclaim his 2013 crown. The horse is a serious trier and one who won't give up coming up that Cheltenham hill, but his form this season in my eyes has not been as strong as that of last year, nor have his performances been as eye-catching. One theory I heard was that the 2013 race, run in tough conditions, was a grueling affair for Nicky Henderson's stable figurehead, and may have taken a lot out of him. Admittedly, he had to fight up that hill to get in front, a lot for any horse, and he hasn't looked the same animal this year, but I'm not sure if I would put his loss down to a tough run. I would have to say that I think that age has caught up with last year's Cheltenham hero and he's definitely not a bet for next year, based both on his age and this season's form.

Lord Windermere (14/1 888Sport) follows Bobs Worth in the betting. This year's Gold Cup winner was given the lowest Timeform rating since Master Smudge in 1980, in which time only Best Mate has managed to retain the Gold Cup, so I wouldn't be backing Lord Windermere to do so at those odds.

Silviniaco Conti was this year's second favourite after falling at the third last in 2013. He ran a good race most of the way this year but couldn't keep a hold on it coming up the hill after the last, with the trio of Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster all travelling at a much quicker pace in the tough closing stages.

So where does the value lie in the 2015 ante-post markets? Luckily, there are two horses at relatively attractive odds which may be worth a small bet for the 2015 showpiece...

Firstly, from the yard of Willie Mullins, Champagne Fever (14/1 Bet365). The front-running grey was unbeaten at Cheltenham until coming second by a head in this year's Arkle to outsider Western Warhorse, having won the Champion Bumper in 2012 and the Supreme in 2013, beating, among others, Jezki and My Tent Or Yours in the latter. He had the class to hold off strong novice competition last year and backed up the form this year when it was time to go chasing. His trainer's record for under cooking his chasers may be a small concern, but not something I'd worry much about.

So, what can we take from his run in the Arkle? He jumped fantastically throughout, and ran a huge race for us to come to the conclusion that he needs a longer trip to really excel, and we could see something special when he does. His breeding would only give positive signs and he looked very comfortable when winning on his chasing debut at Punchestown over 2m 4f. All the indicators are that the plan is Gold Cup next year, with Ruby already commenting on how he's looking forward to riding him in the King George next Christmas if all goes to plan. King George to Gold Cup is a fairly natural progression, and it looks like that's the direction in which he'll be aimed.

Secondly, the horse which grabs my attention is this year's RSA winner O'Faolains Boy (16/1 Bet365). I first considered him on Friday night when I began to look at the 2015 festival and he was available at 33/1, but unfortunately since then his price has plummeted down to 16's at best. I would think that what caught most people's attention rather than the actual run in the RSA may have been Barry Geraghty's comments post-race. He claimed that O'Faolains Boy hadn't jumped well, never really traveled and is a lot better than he showed in the RSA. Those were hugely negtive comments from any jockey straight after winning a race at the festival, and it just shows how highly Geraghty thinks of the horse and how much he feels he must be capable of.

He has always been held in very high regard by trainer Rebecca Curtis and if reports that he tore a shoe of during the race are to be believed, he has to be a serious prospect for the 2015 Gold Cup.

With still another year and another season to go until the roar goes up around Prestbury Park and Britain crowns its best staying chaser, it remains to be seen what will become of these horses and indeed many of the other contenders by next season. Who knows, maybe by the time Gold Cup day comes around, Champagne Fever and O'Faolains Boy could be 100/1, or worse, non-runners, but that is the risk we take in ante post betting. But the dream of backing one of them at 16/1, only for it to win at odds-on - surely that's worth the risk?

As mentioned, Bet365 are at the time of writing offering the best odds on both of the two Gold Cup contenders mentioned. If you're interested in signing up for an account and receiving a free matched bet to the same amount as your first bet, please do so by clicking the following link:  

Cheltenham Festival... 2015 (Part 1)

The dust has settled after the Cheltenham festival and the Midlands National today provided distraction from the one and only subject that has taken over our minds and hearts over the last week. Goulanes was a worthy winner, providing a fourth consecutive victory in the race for the stable of David Pipe. Realistically, it can be all but impossible to cast your mind forward towards what are the last big hurrahs of the jumps season (Aintree and its Grand National, the Irish and Scottish Nationals, and Punchestown) when Cheltenham has taken over your thoughts and you've become borderline obsessive with it.

So, it's time to look ahead - not to Aintree, or Punchestown, but to one year onwards, back in the legendary Prestbury Park. On Tuesday 10th of March 2015, the home of jumps racing will once again be the venue for the four most atmospheric and spectacular days of top-class racing that you will find anywhere. Some people begin their long Cheltenham betting journey on the evening of the previous year's Gold Cup. I've left it 24 hours longer so that the emotions will fade and logic will prevail when having a quick look at the possibilities of 2015!

The opening race itself provided us with an impressive winner from the yard of Willie Mullins. Vautour tore the Supreme field apart, drawing clear in the finish and leaving the others for dust. There's no doubt that the punter with an interest in building his Cheltenham portfolio a full 12 months in advance will have Vautour on his radar.

Firstly, let's take a look at the trends. The form of the Supreme winner in the Champion Hurdle over the last 10 years: 35005- and in the Arkle: 342. I think that the trends here may back up my original opinion on this bet. Champagne Fever was last year's Supreme winner in what was a very strong race, but his front-running performance under Ruby Walsh wasn't as impressive as Vautour's ride of a similar nature. The issue is very simple; year after year, we find that novice form just doesn't turn out to be as strong as we expect when they're thrown in with their elders.

The example that I would take, rather than Champagne Fever, would be last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Our Conor. His win on Gold Cup day 2013 oozed class, and we marveled at how he made the others looks normal; an at the time unbeaten Far West and promising newcomer Rolling Star. The answer was simple - the competition were, at best, normal. Our Conor went on to be a good horse, let there be no doubt about it, but, despite his fantastic run a year previously, he would not have won the Champion Hurdle in my opinion, even had he not taken a fatal fall.

Currently, we're looking at prices for Vautour of 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle and 5/1 for the Arkle (Paddy Power). Whether he stays hurdling or goes chasing, he will have to justify his form against the older generation next season to be a bet for me - and if this means missing out on the prices, so be it. If Mullins decides to go the Champion Hurdle route, I can't see him going off at very short odds on the day unless he has beaten current favourites The New One, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki by the time the festival comes around.

Moving on then to the Champion Hurdle. The prices at the moment are The New One 6/1, My Tent Or Yours 7/1, Jezki 7/1. I've explained why I don't think Vautour is a bet at this stage and stick by that one. A few outsiders might catch the eye - Calipto is 33/1 at the moment and Vaniteux is 25/1. The former was unlucky in the Triumph Hurdle but is hard to back here maybe for the same reason as Vautour - his form will have to be justified next season before we can go backing him. Vaniteux was 3rd behind Vautour in the Supreme, and the same argument stands. We've seen before that novices form does not live up to what we expect.

He interests me though... Nicky Henderson has a record of putting his big players into the Supreme. In recent years, My Tent Or Yours, Sprinter Sacre and Binocular are examples (none of whom won). It was only a late decision on their part to bring this horse to Cheltenham as has apparently only recently begun to mature. All of this would suggest that his improvement could be rapid next year and the prices will be cut on him quickly. And back we go to the old argument - novice form simply isn't solid enough.

However, 33/1 and 25/1 are big prices and I wouldn't put you off small e/w bets. This game is all about value and these odds seem long to me. Follow your gut. There are few feelings that rival having backed a horse at Cheltenham at massive odds and watching it go off at short odds on the day.

For anybody interested in building up a portfolio at the moment, this is not about "bankers" or anything like that. If that's your game, this betting isn't for you. This is about value, and betting in the knowledge that plenty of these horses may not even run, but there could be one in there that will put you in a nice position come March.

I still haven't addressed the main puzzle of the Champion Hurdle. Jezki, The New One, My Tent Or Yours... three strong horses for each of whom a case can be made. This is without mentioning the possibility of Annie Power running (with a mares allowance) and more novices such as Faugheen.

Hurricane Fly supporters will be shocked to hear of odds of 20/1 from SkyBet and Coral but such is the situation with the record-breaking superstar. The Fly's best days must be behind him, even if he would run a lot better with a bit more give in the ground than there was last Tuesday. Returning to the festival next year, Hurricane Fly will be 11 years old, and no horses won at this year's festival over the age of 10. Time has caught up on Mullins' hurdling hero and the glory days must come to an end.

This leaves us with the top 3. Firstly, My Tent Or Yours. This year, the ground suited him perfectly. Conditions are unlikely to be as ideal next year and one would wonder whether or not he's lost his chance. A case could be made that he's a bridle horse and simply not suited to the tough hill at Cheltenham - the jury's out on that one. After two failed attempts at winning over hurdles at the festival, Henderson may feel it's time to give up on that one and give the chasing a shot. He could well prove to be a good thing over fences and the Arkle could be a more successful venture for him. Bet365 and StanJames are the only bookmakers with the hindsight to price him up in this market, and 12/1 could be nice if you're interested.

The New One obviously ran a cracking race to finish 3rd after being badly impeded with Our Conor's fall, leaving jockey Sam Twiston-Davies with a lot of ground to recover, which he did patiently. Any clocking enthusiast will tell you that the ground he covered in the closing stages was immense and his efforts were recognised, making him the justified favourite for next year's race. 6/1 could be value and some may want to take it while it's hot. However, his weak spot is his hurdling and it hasn't showed any huge signs of improving. Also, a step up in the trip could be on the cards and he might not stick with the Champion Hurdle at all next year if 3 miles are calling.

However, he's not without competition, and even if we boldly eliminate My Tent Or Yours from the running, 7/1 (William Hill) seems a big price for Jezki, whose performance was flawless in winning. All of the talk surrounding the comeback of The New One when he looked to be dead and buried has taken away a lot from the praise that The New One deserves for running a fantastic race against arguably the strongest field of this year's festival. The ideal situation here would be that My Tent Or Yours would go chasing in the Arkle and The New One would take a step up in trip, leaving Jezki with considerably less opposition against whom to defend his crown.

Finally, a word on the Mares race. Next year could easily be one too many for Quevega and retirement is an ever-present possibility for the wonder-mare who has dominated this race. 2/1 or 3/1 as quotes for her to win yet again aren't good enough and I would be looking elsewhere. Unfortunately, the bookies haven't priced up the rest of the races yet but I have asked a few for quotes on Annie Power and will update once they give them to me.

My reasoning is that Mullins, after being the boss of this race for so many years, may want to keep a hold of his dominance over the Mares Hurdle, and Annie Power is the perfect weapon at his disposal with which to do so. Whether or not the owners will want to aim bigger that the Mares Hurdle I'm not sure, and chasing is a real possibility I would assume, but if she ran, I would be doubtful that there's another mare around to beat her over her perfect trip.

So much to say, and to think that I've only covered day one! I suppose that's the nature of the festival - so much brilliant racing crammed together, we could discuss it for hours on end. In fairness, the first day is one of the most eventful. I'll  be back in due time with more of the 2015 preview and the quotes that hopefully the bookmakers will get back to me with.

Cheltenham Festival - Review Without The Races

Firstly, welcome to the new blog. We've moved house for a few logistical reasons which are simply too boring to explain. Secondly, apologies for the lack of updates on the old blog over this jumps season. Other things have taken over, we've been busy, and we've missed out on posting over a fantastic National Hunt season. Said fantastic National Hunt season climaxed at Cheltenham this week and the festival took over our minds, hearts and lives for those brilliant four days in March, as it always does.

The 2014 festival carried with it its highs and its lows. On the first day, in what was bound to be one of the races of the meeting, last year's novice superstar Our Conor took a nasty fall and tragically had to be put down. My mind is cast back to 2013, the first race on the last day of the festival. Our Conor led the betting that day, but was due to face stiff competition from the unbeaten Far West and new French arrival Rolling Star. Maybe the form didn't turn out to be quite as solid as we had imagined on the day, but the class of Dessie Hughes's four year old as he left the others for dust and cantered to a seemingly easy victory is a memory that will stand out in my mind for many years to come.

It's truly tragic to think that the life of the same horse ended just one year on at the same event and venue. In my honest opinion, I can't say that I would have backed Our Conor against My Tent Or Yours or The New One on Tuesday, or, in my own misjudgment, against Hurricane Fly, with whom I followed my heart over my head. I would say however, that for 2015 or '16, I would have thought that in Our Conor Dessie Hughes had a Champion Hurdle winner and he must be truly devastated to lose such a talented horse, as must all connections.

The ups and downs of the week were further summed up by Daryl Jacobs. The Ditcheat top jockey's devastation when losing on Southfield Theatre by a nose to Fingal Bay in the Pertemps on Thursday was obvious. He's an emotional man but both he and his stable had been having a bad run at the festival and it was clear that the pressure was getting to him. On a sidenote, winning jockey Richard Johnston's reaction after the race was admirable. He was clearly full of joy but managed to supress it enough to console his upset friend. Paul Nicholls has no issues with criticising jockeys and one would have to wonder whether this has a positive effect on the performances of an individual such as Jacobs.

It was understandable that the crowd were delighted, therefore, when Jacobs picked up a win in the 2.05 on the final day with Lac Fontana. You could see how much it meant to the man to grab a festival winner - a weight off his shoulders. The crowd cheered and his fellow jockeys congratulated him with enthusiasm as he joined them back in the weighing room, victorious at last.

But his fortunes quickly turned. In the very next race, Port Melon was presumably spooked by the crowd and crashed into a railing, throwing Daryl off his back to land head-first on the other side of the railing, onto hard tarmac ground, some billboards and a camera (the cameraman jumped out of the way just at the last moment). The horse, having brought down the railing and some billboards, stood up surprisingly quickly, but we were left with the worrying image of Jacobs, the hero of Cheltenham only 10 minutes previously, lying on the ground surrounded by medics and police by the winning post.

The injury seemed not to be as bad as first thought - he was given oxygen and was well enough to talk to Channel 4 presenter Alice Plunkett, explaining that he had a pain in his leg and his elbow and wanted to stand up but the medics wouldn't let him. He was stretchered off and brought to hospital, where he was treated for a leg injury.

And his wasn't the first, or the worst, injury to a jockey this week. Today, Ruby Walsh took a crashing fall in the first, supposedly fracturing his upper arm and he's sure to be missing for a while. Bryan Cooper suffered a horrific fracture in his leg and will be absent from the racecourse for a while yet. This injury for him coincided with the death of Our Conor, the horse who he had saddled on most of its outings. He surely had a connection with the upcoming superstar and it would have come as a tough blow for him.

Unfortunately, there were four horses whose careers and lives ended during these four days of racing - Our Conor, Akdam, Stack The Deck, Raya Star - let their names not be forgotten. This may seem a small load compared to the accident of JT McNamara last year, but these four horses will leave a huge gap in the lives of their connections and those who work with them everyday. The bonds built between equine and human counterparts shouldn't be underestimated and we should pass on our condolences to all involved with those lost over the week.

The inaugural Prestbury Cup was organised by the racecourse this year, a competition between Great Britain and Ireland to see who can train the most winners at the festival. Last year, the Irish won more races at the festival than the British, and although the British were overwhelming favourites and ultimately winners this year, the Irish contribution to jumps racing worldwide can be seen in every corner of the sport. Irish-bred horses are arguably the best in the world, the trainers are word class and so are the jockeys. And considering that the British won the Prestbury Cup this year thanks in part to Jonjo O'Neill, there are some flaws in the system that will hopefully be addressed by next year, and if so then that will make a close contest out of it.

Well, that's just a few ramblings of a busy mind post-Cheltenham. The racing will be reviewed in due time, next year's festival previewed too. All that's left to say for tonight is that I hope that you finished the festival in profit, that you soaked in the atmosphere, that you enjoyed the magnificent spectacle that is Cheltenham. Aintree and Punchestown are attractive prospects looking ahead, as is the upcoming flat season, but while we have Cheltenham fever, my mind is in just one place - Prestbury Park, 2015. To quote the esteemed poet that is Del-Boy Trotter: "This time next year, we'll be millionaires."