1.40 - One Magnificent City Manifesto Novices Chase - Grade 1 - 2m 4f
It looks doubtful to say the least that today will be a day for big-priced outsiders and each-way coups, with small fields only offering two places to the each-way punters and plenty of the races looking like two or three-horse affairs. This leads us to our first race of the day, the One Magnificent City Manifesto Novices' Chase, which features six horses, four of which ran in the Arkle, finishing 3rd, 4th, 8th and 9th. The other two runners today, Cash And Go and Val De Law, both ran in class 4 races last time out and will need to step it up a notch if they’re to compete with horses deemed good enough to run in the Arkle. |
| Vibrato Valtat was 4th in the Arkle behind Josses Hill |
The main competition is in theory Vibrato Valtat. 4th in the Arkle, he’s a consistent type who rarely puts in a bad run and very rarely finishes outside the places – just about coming up short when well fancied to win isn’t unusual for him though. He looked a real smart type when he won a grade 2 at Warwick before the Arkle and definitely has real potential.
I see this as a toss-up between those two, but there are four others to consider. Clarcam beat Vautour (who wasn’t himself) on bottomless ground at Leopardstown on St Stephens Day and went on to beat Gilgamboa, who won a Grade 1 last weekend, to chase home Un De Sceaux in the Irish Arkle. He was disappointing in the Arkle at Cheltenham but other than that bad run, the only horses to have beaten him over fences are the fantastic Vautour and Un De Sceaux.
Three Kingdoms was 9th in the Arkle having previously run well at a low level and chased home Vibrato Valtat at Kempton. He has McCoy on board which will be an advantage but will also mean that he probably won’t represent much value in the market. Val De Law has been unsuccessful since arriving on these shores and will need to bring a lot more today.
Much as Clarcam might improve, I think he’s one of those horses which runs better in the first half of the season, and so I see this as a toss-up between the top two in the betting. Currently Josses Hill is 13/8 at best with Vibrato Valtat 9/4. It’s not just the price that tempts me, but I’d be more likely to back the latter. There’s very little to choose between them, but I think that Vibrato Valtat will improve back in a small field and might be better over this longer trip than Josses Hill who runs very well over 2m. Josses Hill has also come up short on all three Grade 1 starts, and Vibrato Valtat looks the value.
SELECTION: VIBRATO VALTAT 9/4
2.15 - Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m 1f
You may remember getting our festival off to a flying start
last year with an 8/1 winner in this race in the form of Guitar Pete, but I
think the market may be slightly more accurate this year and it’s hard to see
the same value it the race. Hargam emerges from a good 3rd behind
Peace And Co in the Triumph to contest this and has to have leading claims,
having ran very well that day with Devilment and Stars Over The Sea further
behind him.
They’re not necessarily held on this form considering a
return to better ground and a flat track, with Cheltenham presenting a unique
task. Juvenile form is often turned upside down unexpectedly, and the
difference in conditions between the two big March and April meetings can cause
this.
The better ground certainly won’t trouble Hargam, while you
would think that the flat track will be perfect. There is the argument that a
run up the notorious Cheltenham hill in tough conditions on Gold Cup day will have
taken a lot out of the three of today’s runners which took part. If the Triumph
form was not to work out today and a fresher horse was to come to the fore, Bristol
De Mai and Intense Tango could both take advantage of their 40-day breaks since
they last ran in the Grade 2 Kelso Hurdle at the end of February.
 |
| Hargam is a strong favourite after his Trumph Hurdle 3rd |
Starchitect and Stars Over The Sea may represent value – the
former will have to improve from his last few starts including his Fred Winter
4th while the latter was a long way behind Hargam in 7th
in the Triumph but should definitely prefer Aintree. Devilment could also
prefer this sharper track and improve from his Triumph display. Winner Massagot
has to be taken into consideration considering Alan King’s form of 11211 in the
race in the last 10 years but I can’t see any other reason for him to be a
contender.
Bouvreil was 2nd in the Fred Winter and seems to
be improving rapidly – should his progress continue he could play some sort of
part in today’s race. The other Nicholls runner is All Yours who was about 4
lengths behind his stablemate in the Fred Winter but only a neck behind
Starchitect.
Hostile Fire just didn’t show up that day and finished 19th
– he’s better than that run would suggest but probably still not good enough to
be a betting prospect today.
Hargam is a very strong favourite and has been extremely
well supported so far in the markets, currently evens with more money coming.
This does mean that there’s some value elsewhere, and Bristol De Mai could be a
nice each-way bet at 7/1 with three places on offer.
SELECTION: BRISTOL DE
MAI E/W 7/1
2.50 - Betfred Bowl Chase - Grade 1 - 3m 1f
Again, hard to see value in the race and only seven runners
going to post so just two each-way places up for grabs. Holywell ran very well
to finish 4th in the Gold Cup and arguably could have won had the
ground been better, considering the preferences of the horses which beat him.
He won here after Cheltenham last year and has AP McCoy back on board. He might
like bigger fields and more undulating tracks based on his profile but these
are fairly minor blips in a strong profile.
Silviniaco Conti was disappointing
in the Gold Cup but this was only to be expected and he should give a much
better account of himself here. He also may like a slightly bigger field
(possibly the reason he idled towards the end of this race last year when out
in front by himself). Still, he should run very well especially if the ground
gets any softer.
Ma Filleule is the other one who we should be considering on
form and if either of the top two in the market fail to show up then she should
take advantage and grab a place. She will have to prove herself over this
longer trip and although she was 2nd in the Ryanair in decent
conditions, she may prefer more of a cut in the ground. She also normally
enjoys great rides from experts of the saddle such as Geraghty (injured) and
McCoy (riding Holywell) and has been unsuccessful with Daryl Jacob in the past.
Smad Place was 8th in the Gold Cup but 5th
in an extremely competitive Hennessy in November. He probably does peak in that
period during the first three quarters of the season and his form in the late
spring isn’t as strong, while his best runs tend to come going right-handed.
Vukovar has been in my tracker since he finished 7th
in the JLT last year, blundering the first but running on well. He has only
been seen once since, though, finishing 9th in the Tingle Creek in
December. This brings his Grade 1 form to 79 and it’s unlikely that he’ll
compete with Conti or Holywell today. Ballynagour hasn’t been seen for a while
either, pulled up in the Hennessy last November, and he’ll have to find his
form from the end of last season when he ran well at Cheltenham, Aintree and
Punchestown.
Menorah is liable to come alive around Aintree and was in
fantastic form in the beginning of the season – if we can pull a line through
his King George run then he could well be in the mix.
I see this contest as being between Holywell and Silviniaco
Conti, similar to the first race. There’s no standout each-way value, and the
market is shaping up with Holywell 2/1 at best and Silviniaco Conti 11/4
generally. The course is apparently good to soft, good in places after watering
and this would probably play into Holywell’s hands, with Conti enjoying more of
a cut in the ground. I would also worry about the fact that the favourite idled
last year when he hit the front, the small field might not be ideal. I’m not
sure if I’ll have a bet in the race myself but I’m going to have to side with
Holywell with the ground drying.
SELECTION: HOLYWELL
2/1
3.25 - Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m 4f
What a terrible betting day. This is the third race in a row
which looks like a toss-up between the top two in the market in a field too
small for a decent each-way bet. Melodic Rendezvous is out of this race which
means we’ve got just six, Arctic Fire, Blue Heron, Jezki, Rock On Ruby,
Vaniteux and Volnay De Thaix.
All the information you need for this race is in our special
post here, but it seems to be between the Champion Hurdle 2nd and 4th,
Arctic Fire and Jezki. I would assume that the latter will have to make the
running under McCoy and although we would associate his success with patient
hold-up rides under Barry Geraghty, he has made all twice under McCoy and won
both times.
The Champion Hurdle was underwhelming in the way it panned
out and it could be argued that it fell into the hands of Arctic Fire, but Mullins
suggested after the race that of his first three home, Arctic Fire was the most
likely to improve.
I would have preferred to see Jezki go to Punchestown (he
may well prefer a right-handed track and might want a slightly longer break
before he runs) but he only improves throughout the spring and I think he can
take this, ending his winless run since last May.
Of the others, Rock On Ruby came alive here last season and
will be fresher having not run at Cheltenham, while Vaniteux is generally a
consistent runner and is liable to bounce back from his Champion Hurdle
disappointment but has form to reverse with the Harry Fry horse, as does Volnay
De Thaix. Blue Heron has form to reverse with Vaniteux but is better than
Faugheen made him look over Christmas at Kempton.
Jezki could be value at 3/1 and looks the pick for me, in
another race in which I won’t actually have a bet myself.
SELECTION: JEZKI 3/1
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