Betfred Bowl Runner-By-Runner Guide, Trends Analysis & Horse Profiles

7 runners go to post in the Betfred Bowl, including three from the Gold Cup and the Ryanair runner-up. Before we make our own selection, we're providing you with the most powerful tools to carry out your own form study and analysis. First, our runner-by-runner guide:

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Ballynagour

David Pipe's charge hasn't been seen since he was pulled up in the Hennessy at Newbury (when Smad Place was 5th) but had a great finish to last season, winning at the festival before placing in the Melling Chase here and the Champion Chase at the Punchestown festival.

Holywell

Holywell ran very well to finish 4th in the Gold Cup, only beaten by three horses which would have loved the soft ground that day - he arguably would have had a massive chance had it been run on the drier ground a day earlier. McCoy's return is a big plus and he seems to like it here in April.

Menorah

A big fan of Aintree, Menorah was in the form of his life at the beginning of the season, winning the Charlie Hall and finishing 2nd in the Betfair Chase but he hasn't been seen since finishing 8th in the King George on Boxing Day. He was 5th of 6 in this race last year.

Silviniaco Conti

Last year's winner was disappointing in the Gold Cup but came here and won in 2014 after a similarly disappointing run - he has simply proven that Cheltenham is not his track, but he does return to a flat track here and there's no question that the back-to-back King George winner is still a class horse.

Smad Place

Smad Place was only 8th in the Gold Cup but was doing well earlier on in the season, finishing 5th in a fantastically competitive Hennessy Gold Cup in November and 2nd in the BetBright Cup Chase, beating Dynaste.

Vukovar

Vukovar has been off the track since finishing 9th in the Tingle Creek in December, which was his only run this season. He has form of 79 in Grade 1's and massive improvement will be needed if he's to make any impact on the race today.

Ma Filleule

A strong 2nd in the Ryanair and 2nd in the Ascot Chase. He hasn't won since this meeting last year when victorious in the Topham Chase but has put in some very good displays since and certainly has scope for improvement.

Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

Ballynagour

• Overall Record: 7 runs – 2 wins – 2 places
• Aintree Record: 1-0-1 – 3rd in the Grade 1 2m 4f Melling Chase last April.
• Seems to prefer good ground – 4-1-2 on good with form of P132 compared to 3-1-0 on good to soft or  soft with form of 18P.
• 2-0-0 over 2m 5f+, 5-2-2 over a shorter trip.
• Jockeys: Tom Scudamore 7-2-2
• Seems to prefer smaller fields – 3-1-2 in fields of 11 runners or less, 4-1-0 in fields of 16 or more.
• Needs a relatively recent run – 4-1-2 when back out within 120 days, 2-0-0 after a break of over 120 days.
• Season gets off to a slow start (2-0-0 in November), 1-1-0 in February, 2-1-0 in March, 2-0-2 in April.
• Just 3-1-0 on very undulating tracks so may prefer flatter tracks (1-0-1 on tracks classed on being undulating, 3-1-1 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations).
• 4-1-2 with a tongue-tie, 3-1-0 without so this may be worth noting.

Holywell

• Overall Record: 20 runs – 7 wins – 6 places
• Aintree Record: 4-1-2 – 2nd in a class 2 2m 4f handicap hurdle in October 2012, 2nd in the Grade 1 3m Liverpool Hurdle in April 2013, won the Grade 1 3m 1f Mildmay Novices Chase in April 2014, unseated rider in a listed 3m 1f chase in December 2014.
• His best record is undoubtedly on good to soft ground, with a record of 5-4-1 and form of 12111. Hid records on good ground (3-1-1, 21U) and soft ground (9-2-4, 122223134) are decent too, but his record on heavy (3-0-0, 34U0) is poor.
• His record is better over longer trips – 9-2-3 over 2m 5f or less, 11-5-3 over 3m+ (he never ran over between 2m 5f and 3m).
• Jockeys: Dominic Elsworth 1-0-1, MJ Linehan 1-0-1, AP McCoy 10-5-3, RP McLernon 8-2-1
• Almost all of the occasions on which he was unplaced were small fields of 7 runners or less (10-4-0, 343U1113U1). Good place records in fields of 8-15 (5-1-4) and strong record in fields of 16+ (5-2-2).
• Bad record after a break of over 120 days (3-0-1 compared to 15-7-5 after shorter breaks).
• Winless before Christmas (7-0-3 from October to December), this picks up with a record of 3-1-1 in January, and he peaks in February and March with an outstanding record of 6-5-0 in these months. Drops again to 4-1-2 in April/May.
• Unplaced in 4 starts on right-handed tracks.
• An impressive 5-3-0 on very undulating tracks.

Menorah

• Overall Record: 32 runs - 12 wins - 7 places
• Aintree Record: 4-1-2 – 2nd in the Grade 2 Top Novices Hurdle in April 2010, won the Grade 1 2m 4f Manifesto Novices Chase in April 2012, 2nd in the 2013 Betfred Bowl, 3rd in the 2014 Betfred Bowl.
• Best record is on good to soft ground (13-7-2, 121111F13P218), while soft is 5-1-2 (13P92) and good is 13-3-3 (12254U4132051). 
• Record over less than 2m 4f reads 20-8-3, 2m 4f-2m 6f is 6-3-1, and 3m+ is 7-1-3.
• Jockeys: Kieran Fallon 1-0-0, Richard Johnson 29-11-7, Mr P W Mullins 1-1-0, T J O’Brien 2-0-0
• Record is better in bigger fields (12 or more, 5-4-1) than in fields of 11 or less (28-8-6).
• Decent record of 15-7-5 after a break of 30 days or less, not as strong a record after 31-90 days off (10-1-2), and a better record after 91 or more days off (7-3-0).
• Good record in November (6-3-1, 11U312) and December (8-4-1, 211411P8) and keeps a decent record in the first two months of the new year (4-1-2), before going down to 5-1-0 in March A better 7-2-3 in April. 
• 19-8-6 on flat tracks or those with slight undulations, but only 14-4-1 on undulating and very undulating tracks.

Silviniaco Conti

• Overall Record: 23 runs – 12 wins – 4 places
• Aintree Record: 3-2-1 – won the Grade 2 3m 1f Mildmay Novices Chase in April 2012, 3rd in the 2013 Betfred Bowl, won the 2014 Betfred Bowl.
• Record gets steadily better as the ground gets softer; 7-3-1 on good ground, 8-4-2 on good to soft, 8-5-1 on soft ground.
• Strong record of 13-8-3 over 3m-3m 1f but 3-0-0 over further than 3m 1f.
• Jockeys: Noel Fehily 11-6-2, Daryl Jacob 1-1-0, R Mahon 1-1-0, AP McCoy 1-0-0, Ruby Walsh 9-4-2
• Extremely strong record of 11-5-3 in Group 1 races.
• Made the frame 10 times from 11 starts in fields of 8-11 runners (11-7-3, form of 11131F33111). 10-5-1 in smaller fields and 2-0-0 in bigger.
• Never failed to make the frame when back out within 30 days (8-6-2, 11311311). A decent 6-3-1 with form of 241F11 when back out within 31-60 days of his last run. Much poorer record after over 60 days off the track (8-2-1, 43113457).
• Starts the season very well (14-9-3 from October to December) but does badly after that (3-1-0 in February, 3-0-0 in March). Form picks up again with a record of 3-2-1 in April.
• Records deteriorate as tracks become more undulating; loves flat tracks (9-6-3), 8-5-0 on those with slight undulations and 6-1-1 on very undulating tracks.

Smad Place

• Overall Record: 19 runs – 5 wins – 3 places
• Aintree Record: 2-0-1 – unseated rider in the Grade 1 3m Liverpool Hurdle in April 2012, 3rd in the same race the following year.
• Strong record on all going types, from 13-4-5 on good to soft or better to 2-1-1 on heavy.
• Jockeys: Wayne Hutchinson 7-2-4, Denis O’Regan 1-0-0, Robert Thornton 11-3-4
• Prefers smaller fields – 15-5-7 in fields of 15 or less, 4-0-1 in fields of 16 runners or more.
• Bad record after a long break – 4-1-0 after a break of over 120 days, 14-3-8 after a shorter break.
• Seems to peak from December to February, with a combined record of 7-3-4 and form of 3112212 in these months. 5-2-0 earlier than December (all in November) and 7-0-4 in March/April.
• Probably has a preference for right-handed tracks – 6-3-2 with form of 1122U1 compared to 13-2-6 with form of 1303U333125U8 going left-handed.

Vukovar

• Note: We’ve included French hurdle form for Vukovar as he has only run four times in the UK and Ireland.
• Overall Record: 6 runs – 3 wins – 1 place
• Never ran at Aintree. 
• Seems to prefer softer ground – 2-0-1 on good and good to soft, 4-3-0 on soft and heavy ground.
• Never ran over further than 2m 4f (1-0-0) and never won over further than 2m 2½f (1-1-0). 
• Jockeys: Noel Fehily 3-1-1, Jacques Ricou 2-2-0, Davy Russell 1-0-0
• 2-0-0 in Grade 1 races in the past with form of 79.
• Seems to like smaller fields – 3-2-1 in fields of 7 or less, 3-1-0 in bigger fields.
• Very strong record when back out within 30 days of his last start (3-3-0).

Ma Filleule

• Overall Record: 15 runs – 4 wins – 6 places
• Aintree Record: 2-1-0 – won the Grade 3 2m 5f Topham Chase last April, 3rd in a 3m 1f listed chase last December.
• Seems to like soft ground – 9-2-3 on good to soft or better, 6-2-3 on soft or worse. Particularly bad record of 5-1-0 on good ground.
• Jockeys: D R Bass 1-1-0, Nico De Boinville 1-0-1, Barry Geraghty 9-2-5, Daryl Jacob 2-0-0, AP McCoy 1-1-0, Jeremiah McGrath 1-0-0
• Marginally better record in smaller fields than bigger ones; 10-3-4 with form of 1221231532 in fields of 11 runners or less, 5-1-2 with form of 0P212 in fields of 12 or more.
• Bad record after a break of more than 120 days (2-0-0, form is 35), 12-3-6 when back out within 90 days of his last run (he never ran after a break of 91-120 days).
• His record in the spring is slightly better than before Christmas; 8-2-2 from October to December, 7-2-4 from February to April (form from February to April reads 1022122).
• Seems to prefer flatter tracks; 9-4-3 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations, 6-0-3 on undulating and very undulating tracks.

Trends Analysis

1. 5 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out and a further 4 were unplaced in the Gold Cup on their last start.
2. 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 40 days.
3. 9 of the last 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases.
4. 9 of the last 10 winners had won 4 or more chases.
5. 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 3m+.
6. 10 of the last 10 winners had won a graded chase.
7. 7 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 4 in a grade 1 chase that season.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Ballynagour	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	2
Holywell	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Menorah	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	5
Silviniaco Conti	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Smad Place	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	4
Vukovar	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	0
Ma Filleule	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7