Aintree Hurdle Trends, Profiles & Runner-By-Runner Guide
Our preview and selections of the first day at Aintree will be up soon but as usual the aim of the blog is to give you the most powerful tools for your own analysis and this is what we'll aim to do over the next three days. With just seven runners in both the Aintree Hurdle and the Betfred Bowl it's possible to produce profiles for all the runners which examine their preferred conditions based on their previous runs over their careers. Along with this, we put them up against the key trends from the last 10 renewals of the race and give a guide to each runner.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Arctic Fire
Willie Mullins has warned us throughout the season not to underestimate this horse and his comments were justified when Arctic Fire finished 2nd behind the ever-impressive Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. This brings his record against Jezki this season to two wins from three clashes, beating him at the festival and in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown and having been beaten by him by just over a length at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Blue Heron
Blue Heron was unsurprisingly no match for Faugheen on Boxing Day at Kempton but has since won the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in February, beating Irving and Sign Of A Victory. Like many of today's contenders he has mainly run over 2 miles this season and has form to reverse with Vaniteux from Cheltenham in November, when he was 4th, 6 lengths behind Vaniteux in 2nd.
Jezki
Jezki was able to reverse winter form with Hurricane Fly at the end of last season, beating him to win the Champion Hurdles at Cheltenham and Punchestown in the spring but he was 7.5 lengths behind him in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown in February and a disappointing 4th in the Champion Hurdle at last year's Cheltenham festival, with Arctic Fire also ahead of him on both occasions. He's arguably better with Barry Geraghty on his back, who tends to ride him less aggressively than McCoy.
Melodic Rendezvous
Despite having been entered in the Arkle, Melodic Rendezvous returns to chasing having indicated in the Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton in February that fences weren't his forte. He has four graded wins to his name over hurdles but was disappointing both in last year's Champion Hurdle at the festival and Liverpool Hurdle at this meeting.
Rock On Ruby
The 2013 Champion Hurdle was being aimed at the World Hurdle over 3 miles at Cheltenham but was withdrawn the week before the race. He put in a huge run last year to lose this by a head on his return to hurdles from a spell over fences. He chases a hat trick here having won twice over the winter at Cheltenham, beating Volnay De Thaix and Vaniteux.
Vaniteux
Last year's Supreme Novices Hurdle 3rd finished last in the Champion Hurdle last month and was beaten by Rock On Ruby on his previous start, also at Cheltenham. He won't have Barry Geraghty on board today for the first time in his career, and his last five starts have all been at Cheltenham so it will be interesting to see him back on a flat track.
Volnay De Thaix
5th in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham festival, Volnay De Thaix was beaten by Rock On Ruby in December at Cheltenham. He runs well on his day but is yet to pick up a graded win despite having tried 5 times.
Individual Horse Profiles & Notes
Arctic Fire
- Overall Record: 13
runs – 2 wins – 6 places
- Never ran at Aintree.
- Seems to have a real preference for better ground – 8-2-5 on
good to soft or better, 4-0-1 on soft or worse.
- Jockeys: DJ Casey 2-0-2, PJ Smullen 1-0-1, Paul Townend
5-0-1, Ruby Walsh 3-2-1, D E Mullins 1-0-1
- It looks like he has a strong preference for bigger fields –
9-0-5 with form of S34223322 in fields of 11 or less, 3-2-1 with form of 121 in
fields of 12 or more runners.
- Record is good after very short break or a long one, but not
a medium length – 2-0-2 after less than 16 days off the track prior to the run,
and 5-1-3 after more than 30 days off (he also won when fresh on his debut),
but his record is only 4-0-1 after 16-30 days off the track.
- He seems to peak in the second half of the season – his
record from October to December is 7-1-2, 1S34233, fairly weak compared to
5-1-4 from January to May with form of 21222.
Blue Heron
- Overall Record: 9
runs – 4 wins – 2 places
- Never ran at Aintree.
- Better records on softer ground – 1-0-0 on good, 5-2-2 on
good to soft, 3-2-0 on soft.
- Jockeys: B Andrews 1-0-1, PJ Brennan 1-0-0, Harry Skelton
7-4-1
- Probably peaks from February to March – 3-2-1 in those
months with form of 311 in those months. 1-0-0 in April, 5-2-1 from October to
December.
- Preference for right-handed tracks – 6-3-2 compared to 3-1-0
going left-handed.
- Seems to prefer flatter tracks – 6-3-1 on flat tracks and those
with slight undulations compared to 3-1-0 on very undulating tracks.
Jezki
- Overall Record: 20
runs – 11 wins – 4 places
- Never ran at Aintree.
- Seems to be able to perform on good and soft ground – 9-6-0
with form of 118111134 on good to soft or better, 11-5-4 with form of
51111312422 on soft or worse.
- Jockeys: M Fahey 2-2-0, Shane Foley 1-0-0, Barry Geraghty
5-5-0, AP McCoy 8-3-2, R M Power 3-1-1, M P Walsh 1-0-1
- Record is a lot better in smaller fields – 16-10-3 with form
of 1111111124112234 in fields of 11 or less compared to 4-1-1 with form of 8513
in fields of 12 or more. It’s particularly bad in fields of 14+ - the 5th
was in a field of 15 and the 8th in a field of 20.
- Better form after a break – 9-5-1 when returning to the track
after 30 days off or less, 10-5-3 after a break of more than 30 days (plus a
win when fresh on his debut).
- Bad record in January (3-1-0) improves in March to 5-1-2,
and 2-2-0 in April and May.
- Preference for right-handed tracks (6-5-1 compared to 14-6-3
going left-handed).
Melodic Rendezvous
- Overall Record: 16 runs – 8 wins – 3 places
- Aintree Record: 1-0-0 – 7th in the Grade 1 3m Liverpool Hurdle last April.
- 9-2-2 on ground better than heavy isn’t a bad record, but he loves heavy ground (7-6-1 with form of 2111111).
- Jockeys: J J Codd 1-0-1, Nick Scholfield 14-8-2, Tom Scudamore 1-0-0
- Very strong record of 4-3-0 in Grade 2 races.
- Strong record of 10-6-1 in fields of 7 runners or less.
- Probably at his best after a break of 31-60 days (5-3-2 with form of 21112).
- Probably peaks from December to February (8-6-1 across these months). 2-1-0 in March and 2-0-1 in April.
- Possibility of a preference for right-handed tracks (8-4-3 with form of 22111123 compared to 8-4-0 with form of 11517731 going left-handed).
- Only 4-1-0 on flat tracks compared to 12-7-3 on all others.
Rock On Ruby
- Overall Record: 24 runs – 11 wins – 7 places
- Aintree Record: 3-0-2 – 3rd in the 2011 Grade 2 2m 4f Mersey Novices Hurdle, 3rd in the 2012 Aintree Hurdle, 2nd in the 2014 Aintree Hurdle.
- 19-10-6 on good and good to soft compared to 5-1-1 on soft and heavy means that better ground is important.
- Jockeys: Noel Fehily 15-7-3, Daryl Jacob 2-0-2, Nick Scholfield 1-0-0, Harry Skelton 2-1-1, Ruby Walsh 4-3-1
- Very strong record in larger fields of 12 or more runners – 5-4-1 with form of 11112 compared to 19-7-6 in fields of 11 or less.
- Only ever outside the places once between January and March, with a combined record of 10-6-3 (January 2-1-1, February 3-3-0, March 5-2-2). November (4-2-1) and December (5-3-1) are also decent, while April (4-0-2) and October (1-0-0) are less impressive.
- Has done very well on tracks with slight undulations (8-6-1). 5-3-0 on flat tracks and 11-5-3 on undulating and very undulating tracks.
Vaniteux
- Overall Record: 8 runs – 2 wins – 4 places
- Never ran at Aintree.
- Better record on good to soft than soft – 6-2-3 on good to soft compared to 2-0-1 on soft ground.
- Jockeys: Barry Geraghty 8-2-4
- Both wins were in fields of 8-11 runners, in which he has a record of 4-2-1 and form of 1128. In fields of 7 or less he has a record of 2-0-1 and form of 42, and in fields of 12 or more he has a record of 2-0-2 and form of 32.
- Record after a break is marginally better than when back out again quickly; 4-1-2 after 31+ days off, 3-0-2 after 30 days or less off the track before running.
- Both times he was unplaced were in December, when his record is 3-1-0. Other win came in February (1-1-0) and other months (January, March and November) each have records of 1-0-1.
Volnay De Thaix
- Overall Record: 9 runs – 4 wins – 2 places
- Aintree Record: 1-0-0 – 5th in the Grade 1 2m 4f Mersey Novices Hurdle last April.
- Best record is 3-1-2 on soft ground. 6-3-0 on good to soft or better.
- Jockeys: Peter Carberry 1-0-0, Barry Geraghty 7-4-2, Richard Johnson 1-0-0
- Strong record in fields of 11 runners or less (5-3-1). 4-1-1 in fields of 12 or more.
- Runs well fresh – 2-2-0 after a break of over 90 days (he also won when fresh on his maiden).
- The standout month is November (4-3-1, form of 1114). 2-0-1 in December, 2-1-0 in March, 1-0-0 in April.
- Possible preference for right-handed tracks (3-2-1 compared to 6-2-1 going left-handed).
- Just 2-0-0 on very undulating tracks compared to 7-4-2 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations
Trends
- 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on their last completed start over hurdles, while a further three were unplaced at the Cheltenham festival.
- 10 of the last 10 winners had had 2-5 runs over hurdles that season.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had run in the past 40 days.
- 8 of the last 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers.
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 6-13 starts over hurdles.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.
- 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 3 in a grade 1 hurdle.
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Total |
| Arctic Fire |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
6 |
| Blue Heron |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
6 |
| Jezki |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
6 |
| Melodic Rendezvous |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
4 |
| Rock On Ruby |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
4 |
| Vaniteux |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
6 |
| Volnay De Thaix |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
5 |
Willie Mullins has warned us throughout the season not to underestimate this horse and his comments were justified when Arctic Fire finished 2nd behind the ever-impressive Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. This brings his record against Jezki this season to two wins from three clashes, beating him at the festival and in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown and having been beaten by him by just over a length at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Blue Heron was unsurprisingly no match for Faugheen on Boxing Day at Kempton but has since won the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in February, beating Irving and Sign Of A Victory. Like many of today's contenders he has mainly run over 2 miles this season and has form to reverse with Vaniteux from Cheltenham in November, when he was 4th, 6 lengths behind Vaniteux in 2nd.
Jezki was able to reverse winter form with Hurricane Fly at the end of last season, beating him to win the Champion Hurdles at Cheltenham and Punchestown in the spring but he was 7.5 lengths behind him in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown in February and a disappointing 4th in the Champion Hurdle at last year's Cheltenham festival, with Arctic Fire also ahead of him on both occasions. He's arguably better with Barry Geraghty on his back, who tends to ride him less aggressively than McCoy.
Despite having been entered in the Arkle, Melodic Rendezvous returns to chasing having indicated in the Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton in February that fences weren't his forte. He has four graded wins to his name over hurdles but was disappointing both in last year's Champion Hurdle at the festival and Liverpool Hurdle at this meeting.
The 2013 Champion Hurdle was being aimed at the World Hurdle over 3 miles at Cheltenham but was withdrawn the week before the race. He put in a huge run last year to lose this by a head on his return to hurdles from a spell over fences. He chases a hat trick here having won twice over the winter at Cheltenham, beating Volnay De Thaix and Vaniteux.
Last year's Supreme Novices Hurdle 3rd finished last in the Champion Hurdle last month and was beaten by Rock On Ruby on his previous start, also at Cheltenham. He won't have Barry Geraghty on board today for the first time in his career, and his last five starts have all been at Cheltenham so it will be interesting to see him back on a flat track.
5th in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham festival, Volnay De Thaix was beaten by Rock On Ruby in December at Cheltenham. He runs well on his day but is yet to pick up a graded win despite having tried 5 times.
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