Irish Grand National Preview & Selection

In what has become a recurring theme as this National Hunt season reaches its climax, Cantlow’s odds collapsed upon the news that AP McCoy would be partnering him in his last ever Irish National. McCoy won the race in 2007 on Butler’s Cabin and for him to repeat the feat would bring massive pleasure to an admiring racing world. However, Cantlow represents no value in the race to me and I don’t fancy his chances, much as it would be nice to see McCoy ride him to victory on his final visit to Fairyhouse.

Cantlow was 8th in this last year and has poor subsequent form

8^th in this race last year, Cantlow has finished 10^th, 13^th, 6^th, 6^th and been pulled up on his subsequent starts, never finishing within 25 lengths of the winners of each race. He carries less weight but this is because of his terrible form I see no reason that he should justify such short odds – last year’s winning favourite of this race was the first since 1999 and Cantlow looks a weak favourite to me.

The current second favourite is a much more attractive prospect in my opinion. Willie Mullins has thus far had a record-breaking season with an outstanding eight winners at the Cheltenham festival, including an unprecedented three chase wins, more than he has gained in the past four years combined. He also succeeded in winning a race which has always eluded him, the Arkle, continuing to slowly whittle down the list of top prizes in National Hunt racing which the all-conquering trainer hasn’t got on his CV.

The Irish National is one such race, with the results in the past favouring both English raiders and small Irish yards but overlooking giants of the Irish jump racing scene such as Mullins. However, as his incredible season continues, he has a very good chance of finally ending his Fairyhouse drought.

Dogora could be improving at the age of six having run respectably in some tough handicaps this season and shouldn’t be completely overlooked based on his last run, but the main Mullins shot is undoubtedly Perfect Gentleman, most recently seen finishing 4^th in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham festival last month. A proven stayer, he has never finished outside the places from 3 starts over 3 miles or further. Although he seemed to have nothing to give in the last 100 yards of the National Hunt Chase, he should relish this trip which is 3f shorter than that the task he undertook at Cheltenham.

He fell here before having the chance to get involved in the Drinmore Novices Chase but that is the only blot in his chasing record and he has run creditably on each of his other starts over fences. With Ruby on board I can see him putting in a big run and I’m happy to take 12/1 each-way, even if he does have 10-10 on his back.

Perfect Gentleman could bring Mullins his first
victory in the race

If In Doubt would be a very interesting bet but the handicapper has been tough on him and top weight is a massive task in this race, while his form tends to drop drastically towards the end of the season. His jumping is far from perfect and that could potentially make the difference here. Thunder And Roses could be of interest, donning cheek pieces for the first time, but he has been more successful in smaller fields and slightly earlier on in the season in the past and he doesn’t look like a betting prospect to me unless returning to the form he showed he was capable of when he won here in January.

Alderwood and Grand Jesture both carry hefty weights which will make this very tough – while the latter in particular should have claims, they have this obstacle to overcome first and neither are guaranteed to stay this trip.

As for the other more fancied contenders, Los Amigos will have to prove himself over the trip but ran admirably to pick up a win here in January after a break of 12 months from Lion Na Bearnai who won this race in 2012 and returns this year. Los Amigos will be sure to have come on a long way from that start but it’s hard to know whether he’ll see out the race. Pass The Hat also would have claims but also has to answer the same question regarding his staying ability. Lots Of Memories is still a novice (not particularly unusual in the Irish National) and his recent form looks fairly decent.

SELECTION: PERFECT GENTLEMAN E/W 12/1