Firstly, rather than producing a runner-by-runner guide and unexplained ratings as we did last year, we've used trends and other factors to narrow the field (originally 74 runners when we began) down to a longlist of 14 horses which performed best in our traditional trends analysis, and then down to a final three bets today. The process was long and involved hours of sifting through form, pouring over past Nationals and examining past races of this year's runners. In the document which the link below leads to you'll see a sort of summarised version of how we came up with a shortlist, examined the shortlisted horses in more detail and eliminated them one by one, eventually coming up with three bets - it is simplified to make it readable rather than mind numbingly boring.
For those who don't want to read the full thing, here's our longlist:
Al Co – (final bet)
Raz De Maree – (reserve three - eliminated at a late stage due to not fitting a variety of trends especially those concerning weight, for not being a proven stayer and for some past jumping issues).
Pineau De Re – (eliminated due to carrying a higher weight than last year despite being a year older and in worse form).
The Druids Nephew – (eliminated due to his individual profile being completely against him - despite the fact that it was when he won at Cheltenham too. He also doesn't represent much value).
Godsmejudge – (final bet)
Portrait King – (final bet)
Goonyella – (not running)
Rocky Creek – (eliminated due to the fact that he simply doesn't represent value at 10/1).
First Lieutenant – (eliminated at a late stage due to possible questions over both jumping and stamina).
Night In Milan – (eliminated due to the fact that he was in the bottom half of most of our "scoreboards").
Cause Of Causes – (eliminated due to young age and lack of experience - and success- over fences).
Wyck Hill – (eliminated due to serious jumping concerns).
The Package – (4th reserve, eliminated due to jumping concerns).
Rigadin De Beauchene – (eliminated due to failing some further trends, particularly those surrounding weight, and due to the fact that his form since March 2013 reads PP1PPPP8 which doesn't instill confidence heading into a mammoth task such as the National).
So, as you've seen the final bets are Al Co, Godsmejudge and Portrait King (Goonyella actually made the final cut too, only to be withdrawn).
Al Co won the Scottish National last year and has since been aimed at this race. He jumped fantastically that day and beat some very good horses, and should appreciate the ground especially if there isn't much watering. He ran respectably over hurdles already this season and was pulled up in the Becher but we can definitely expect much more from him on Saturday. Peter Bowen has a great record over these fences and everything about Al Co says that he should have a say in the National. 25/1 is fair.
Godsmejudge was also one of our bets when he failed to make the race last year. He won the Scottish National in 2013 and finished 2nd last year. His jumping is fantastic and he's a proven stayer, and although many have labelled him as unpredictable he has a very specific profile which is completely fitted by Saturday's race (it's in the link above too). He must have massive chances so I'm taking 22/1.
Portrait King is probably the least likely of the three but he does fit the majority of the trends and I could find few jumping issues, while his stamina is not under question with a 4m 1f win under his belt. He can run very well on his day and 66/1 could be a massive price should he find the form which saw him win the Eider in 2012.
I've had twice as much on the first two as Portrait King (for example 1pt e/w on Al Co, 1pt e/w on Godsmejudge, 0.5pts e/w on Portrait King) and if you take the recommended prices (and 5 each-way places of course) we should see profit if any one of them places.
The very best of luck, and enjoy the world's greatest steeplechase. Also, remember that this Merseyside Marathon isn't called a lottery for no reason, so only bet what you can afford to lose! Again, most importantly, good luck and enjoy.
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