2.45 - REA Grimes Property Consultants Hurdle - Grade 3 - 2m
The Grade 3 REA Grimes Property Consultants Hurdle gets us
underway with a feast of Graded action on Irish Grand National day at
Fairyhouse, and features plenty of Ireland’s most interesting juvenile hurdlers
this season. Dicosimo shot out in front in the Triumph at Cheltenham and ran
well almost all the way around, only weakening after the second last to
eventually finish 8th. He came into that race on the back of an
impressive win at Gowran on similar ground to today's, when he ran in a similar style to finish over 7
lengths ahead of Prussian Eagle who has been
improving all season and subsequently went on to finish 3rd at
Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices Hurdle (he picked up 50/1 place
money for us that day).
Lettre De Cachet was 9 lengths behind Prussian Eagle in the
Deloitte and Chatham House Rule was a further 7 lengths back so in theory they
should both be held on that form, although the latter did win nicely in a
lesser contest at Limerick last time out.
As well as Dicosimo, Mullins has Business Sivola and
Whiteout in the race. The former was 10th in the Fred Winter at the
festival and also has form to reverse with Prussian Eagle, and it would be
surprising if a horse Mullins sent to the Fred Winter would come out ahead of
his top hope for the Triumph, while Whiteout won his maiden hurdle in Gowran
very well and won a claimer on the flat in France last July but should have a
lot to find with the main contenders here.
The other runners are Sam Red, Ring Chief and Scooping. Sam
Red bolted up at Navan last time out and had clearly improved from his debut
when he was 3rd behind Whiteout at Gowran so should be considered a
contender, but 6/1 is hardly much value. Ring Chief was 2nd on his
first appearance over hurdles here in December, behind Thunder Zone who runs in
today’s National and in front of Officieux was 8th in the Deloitte,
and I think he could be the overpriced, overlooked and unexposed one at 16/1
but he will have to step up to the plate in tough company today. Scooping won
when a rank outsider on his debut so can’t be discounted while his 4th
last time out was certainly respectable – all three of these must be taken into
consideration.
Prussian Eagle may have that key piece of Gowran form to
reverse with current 6/4 favourite Dicosimo but is an each-way price and 6/1
looks like a decent each-way bet to me, considering the fact that plenty of
today’s runners have form to reverse with him and he seems to be considering
rapidly. He should enjoy the cut in the ground and is a nice each-way bet.
SELECTION: PRUSSIAN
EAGLE E/W 6/1
3.20 - Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle - Grade 2 - 2m 4f
Noble Endeavor, Analifet and Zaidpour all come here after
running at the Cheltenham festival, with varying degrees of success. Noble
Endeavor was beaten by just a head by Killultagh Vic in the Martin Pipe on the
Friday, on soft ground which he does seem to love but which may have taken
quite a bit out of him. Gordon Elliott seems to think very highly of him and
his consistent form of 2212 this season justifies his trainer’s fondness for
him.
Analifet was 5th on the same day in the Martin Pipe in what was
arguably a career best performance for her. Again, this could have taken a lot
out of her and there may be doubts over whether today’s trip is ideal.
Stablemate Zaidpour has won twice and placed twice from five starts here at
Fairyhouse and should love the soft ground. He wasn’t disgraced when 66/1 8th
in the World Hurdle at the festival but his best form seems to be after a
longer break in the first half of the season.
Ruby has overlooked both Analifet and Zaidpour in order to
ride Thousand Stars who returns to the track after a break of over 300 days
since he was last seen finishing 9th in a group 1 hurdle in France.
Last year’s winner has won twice from three starts at Fairyhouse and is a true
veteran having run 46 times over hurdles and 67 times in total under rules – a long
layoff makes him hard to back though.
Prince Rudi is another veteran at the grand old age of 13
who has won 5 times from 38 starts. He was in form at the end of last season
and over the summer, winning in Galway in August but even in that form it would
be hard to fancy him for today. 9th and 17th in lesser
company on his last two starts, it seems reasonable to overlook him. The same can be said for Black Spot On who has won twice over hurdles over 2 miles and looks well out of
his depth in this company.
Gerdago is only 5 and is improving but may also be
tough to fancy considering how much form he has to reverse with today’s runners
– he was 4th when Noble Endeavor won at Punchestown in January, 3rd
behind Dedigout and Zaidpour at Navan in February and last of 6 in the
Ballsbridge Hurdle at Leopardstown when Jennies Jewel was 4th later
that month.
Jennies Jewel hasn’t been seen since then when she was 9
lengths behind the winner on soft ground similar to today’s. She is a
consistent performer and showed at Navan over Christmas that she can put in a
big run.
This leaves us with Dedigout. Shrewd trainer Tony Martin
chose to skip Cheltenham with this 9yo, who won the Boyne Hurdle in February
from Zaidpour on yielding to soft ground. He has picked up 7 wins from 10
starts over hurdles and seems to be in flying form, having won on both of his
last two starts. He should love the soft ground and the right-handed track and
his best form in the past has come at the end of the season. He’s one of the
fresher horses in the field which could work to his advantage and although some
would argue that he may want a longer trip, I think that this should be fine
especially on the testing ground which he seems to enjoy. It’s not an easy race
to pick the winner of but Dedigout looks the best option for me.
SELECTION: DEDIGOUT
9/4
4.25 - Rathbarry and Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle - Grade 2 - 2m
An extremely trappy affair here with almost every runner in with a good chance. Willie Mullins has won the last two renewals with Valseur Lido last year and with Pique Sous in 2013. He will be keen to win a third successive renewal and has two runners this year – current favourite Sempre Medici and Max Dynamite, 6th and 4th respectively in the County Hurdle at the festival.
Sempre Medici ran well to finish 2nd behind Jollyallan at Kempton on Boxing Day and that run suggested that a big improvement in his jumping would see him get some nice results. He was a very disappointing 7th in the Deloitte after that at Leopardstown but got back to something like his Kempton form when 6th in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Max Dynamite is a similar story; he won well at Thurles before Christmas but was very disappointing at Naas in February before getting back on track in the County Hurdle. However, Ruby has decided to side with Sempre Medici which could well be a good indicator of their chances.
Noel Meade has also tasted success in this race a few times, most recently in 2011, and he runs Rich Coast who also contested the County Hurdle and looks well held on that form, finishing 18th that day. He won a Grade 3 hurdle in Tipperary in October on better ground, a return to which might see him improve, but in testing conditions he’s hard to fancy here.
Blair Perrone finished last of all in the Deloitte but he can’t be judged on this run and was certainly back to his best when winning at Gowran last month. The soft ground will suit him and he looks progressing quickly but the McCoy factor puts him at just 11/4 in some places.
Identity Thief also can’t be judged on his Deloitte run when he was pulled up and ran no sort of race – prior to that he was the impressive winner of a bumper here on heavy ground in October and a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown on soft in December. There could well have been something amiss in the Deloitte but it would be foolish to write him off at this stage.
Phils Magic was easily beaten by Max Dynamite back in November in Thurles but has never finished outside the top two in seven starts, all in reasonably big fields, and is one of those really likeable horses which always puts in a good effort and, more importantly, has improved in every start over hurdles. There’s no reason why the progression shouldn’t continue and why he shouldn’t put in another good run, and he has all the characteristics of a solid each-way bet – 8/1 is a great price.
Rock The World ran badly in the Boylesports Hurdle, a decent handicap in January in Leopardstown, but all of the rest of his form this season suggests that he should be in the mix if he can prove that this was a one-off blip.
Cardinal Palace took to hurdles fantastically on his first start over obstacles last time out and should he reproduce that run (or improve from it as seems likely) he also could be well in with a chance. Mr Diablo is another consistent sort who was 3rd in a listed hurdle last time out; he will need to improve but it’s not out of the question, while Baily Cloud is yet to win a maiden hurdle despite coming close on a number of occasions, but will need to improve a lot to be in with a chance here.
This is a seriously tough and competitive race and a case can be made for the majority of the field but 8/1 looks a massive price for a horse as consistent, progressive and honest as Phils Magic and he has to be the pick, despite some of the outsiders’ double-figure prices looking tempting to say the least.
SELECTION: PHILS MAGIC E/W 8/1
Sempre Medici ran well to finish 2nd behind Jollyallan at Kempton on Boxing Day and that run suggested that a big improvement in his jumping would see him get some nice results. He was a very disappointing 7th in the Deloitte after that at Leopardstown but got back to something like his Kempton form when 6th in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Max Dynamite is a similar story; he won well at Thurles before Christmas but was very disappointing at Naas in February before getting back on track in the County Hurdle. However, Ruby has decided to side with Sempre Medici which could well be a good indicator of their chances.
Noel Meade has also tasted success in this race a few times, most recently in 2011, and he runs Rich Coast who also contested the County Hurdle and looks well held on that form, finishing 18th that day. He won a Grade 3 hurdle in Tipperary in October on better ground, a return to which might see him improve, but in testing conditions he’s hard to fancy here.
Blair Perrone finished last of all in the Deloitte but he can’t be judged on this run and was certainly back to his best when winning at Gowran last month. The soft ground will suit him and he looks progressing quickly but the McCoy factor puts him at just 11/4 in some places.
Identity Thief also can’t be judged on his Deloitte run when he was pulled up and ran no sort of race – prior to that he was the impressive winner of a bumper here on heavy ground in October and a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown on soft in December. There could well have been something amiss in the Deloitte but it would be foolish to write him off at this stage.
Phils Magic was easily beaten by Max Dynamite back in November in Thurles but has never finished outside the top two in seven starts, all in reasonably big fields, and is one of those really likeable horses which always puts in a good effort and, more importantly, has improved in every start over hurdles. There’s no reason why the progression shouldn’t continue and why he shouldn’t put in another good run, and he has all the characteristics of a solid each-way bet – 8/1 is a great price.
Rock The World ran badly in the Boylesports Hurdle, a decent handicap in January in Leopardstown, but all of the rest of his form this season suggests that he should be in the mix if he can prove that this was a one-off blip.
Cardinal Palace took to hurdles fantastically on his first start over obstacles last time out and should he reproduce that run (or improve from it as seems likely) he also could be well in with a chance. Mr Diablo is another consistent sort who was 3rd in a listed hurdle last time out; he will need to improve but it’s not out of the question, while Baily Cloud is yet to win a maiden hurdle despite coming close on a number of occasions, but will need to improve a lot to be in with a chance here.
This is a seriously tough and competitive race and a case can be made for the majority of the field but 8/1 looks a massive price for a horse as consistent, progressive and honest as Phils Magic and he has to be the pick, despite some of the outsiders’ double-figure prices looking tempting to say the least.
SELECTION: PHILS MAGIC E/W 8/1
5.00 - Irish Grand National
Here's an excerpt:
"The main Mullins shot is undoubtedly Perfect Gentleman, most recently seen finishing 4th in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham festival last month. A proven stayer, he has never finished outside the places from 3 starts over 3 miles or further. Although he seemed to have nothing to give in the last 100 yards of the National Hunt Chase, he should relish this trip which is 3f shorter than that the task he undertook at Cheltenham.
He fell here before having the chance to get involved in the Drinmore Novices Chase but that is the only blot in his chasing record and he has run creditably on each of other starts over fences. With Ruby on board I can see him putting in a big run and I’m happy to take 12/1 each-way, even if he does have 10-10 on his back."
SELECTION: PERFECT GENTLEMAN E/W 12/1
5.35 - John and Chich Fowler Memorial E B F Mares Chase - Grade 3 - 2m 4f
There isn't much to say here with just five runners (Elsie ran yesterday and will be declared a non-runner at some stage today). Odds-on favourite Vroum Vroum Mag has been simply breathtaking since arriving on these shores from France (where she showed great consistency in bumpers and hurdles), with four wins from four starts over fences, all on soft to heavy ground, all by a comfortable distance and each one as good as the last. She's one of the most exciting horses in Willie Mullins' yard at the moment (and that's saying something) and her two grade 2 wins show that although there are some interesting competitors here, she should be well up to the challenge.
Byerely Babe is also a grade 2 winner and ran well on her last two starts so she should be able to compete but it's hard to see her or anything else beat the favourite. Burn And Turn was 3rd in this last season but hasn't been impressive on either of her last two starts in graded races and it looks unlikely that she'll improve on last year's finishing position or cause an upset. Dazzling Suzie is an unpredictable sort but nothing that should trouble Vroum Vroum Mag or the other two aforementioned mares at their best while Annie Oakley's win last time out was her first from eight attempts since taking to fences - stark contrast to the favourite's 4 from 4.
If anything positive was to be gained from Annie Power's fall it was that it served as a reminder that there's never such a thing as a certainty in racing. The best horse, even if not beaten by the opposition, can be beaten by its own simple mistakes which even the very best do make at times. However, Vroum Vroum Mag does look to be of a different class and has to be the pick - not a certainty, but a very strong chance of a win.
SELECTION: VROUM VROUM MAG 4/9
As always, the very best of luck and remember not to bet any more than you can afford to lose. The racing is refreshingly competitive but as a result frustratingly trappy so although there may be good punting opportunities in there, it's a tough day for betting and the unpredictability of the testing ground will only make it tougher. So, again, don't bet more than you can afford to lose and good luck!
Byerely Babe is also a grade 2 winner and ran well on her last two starts so she should be able to compete but it's hard to see her or anything else beat the favourite. Burn And Turn was 3rd in this last season but hasn't been impressive on either of her last two starts in graded races and it looks unlikely that she'll improve on last year's finishing position or cause an upset. Dazzling Suzie is an unpredictable sort but nothing that should trouble Vroum Vroum Mag or the other two aforementioned mares at their best while Annie Oakley's win last time out was her first from eight attempts since taking to fences - stark contrast to the favourite's 4 from 4.
If anything positive was to be gained from Annie Power's fall it was that it served as a reminder that there's never such a thing as a certainty in racing. The best horse, even if not beaten by the opposition, can be beaten by its own simple mistakes which even the very best do make at times. However, Vroum Vroum Mag does look to be of a different class and has to be the pick - not a certainty, but a very strong chance of a win.
SELECTION: VROUM VROUM MAG 4/9
As always, the very best of luck and remember not to bet any more than you can afford to lose. The racing is refreshingly competitive but as a result frustratingly trappy so although there may be good punting opportunities in there, it's a tough day for betting and the unpredictability of the testing ground will only make it tougher. So, again, don't bet more than you can afford to lose and good luck!
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