Sussex Stakes Trends Analysis

Draw

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	2	12%	5	29%	7	41%
2	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
3	16	5	31%	1	6%	6	38%
4	17	1	6%	6	35%	7	41%
5	15	2	13%	4	27%	6	40%

We’ll be giving points to the horses drawn in stalls 1, 3, 4 and 5. (1 = Outstrip, 2 = Darwin, 3 = War Command [non-runner], 4 = Kingman, 5 = Toronado)

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	41	11	27%	5	12%	16	39%
Second	26	6	23%	7	27%	13	50%
Third	12	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
Seventh	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

The focus here is on horses which finished in the top 2 on their last outing.

Market Positions

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	18	8	44%	7	39%	15	83%
2	17	4	24%	6	35%	10	59%
3	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
4	17	3	18%	1	6%	4	24%

The focus is also on the top 2 when we look at the market.

Recent Form

10 of the last 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

All of this year’s runners fit this trend, with Outstrip, Kingman and Toronado all having run on the opening day of Royal Ascot which was 43 days ago, and Darwin running in the Group 3 Minstrel Stakes on Irish Oaks day at the Curragh just 11 days ago.

10 of the last 10 winners had had 2-5 runs that season

Toronado does not fit this trends as he has only had one run this season, winning the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.

9 of the last 10 winners had won over the mile

All of this year’s runners fit this trend

9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 at the Royal Meeting in that season

Toronado and Kingman fit this trend, while Darwin finished 10^th in the 6f Diamond Jubilee Stakes and Outstrip was 3^rd behind Kingman in the St James Palace Stakes

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Outstrip	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Darwin	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Kingman	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Toronado	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	6

So, we have our shortlist:

1.       Kingman 4/9 – 7

2.       Toronado 11/4 – 6

And our bet:

“1pt win on Kingman @ 4/9 – Sussex Stakes”

As always, the very best of luck and remember only to bet what you can afford to lose.

Lennox Stakes Trends Analysis

Draw

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	14	2	14%	3	21%	5	36%
2	14	1	7%	3	21%	4	29%
3	12	1	8%	3	25%	4	33%
4	12	1	8%	0	0%	1	8%
5	13	3	23%	3	23%	6	46%
6	14	1	7%	5	36%	6	43%
7	13	2	15%	2	15%	4	31%
8	11	0	0%	1	9%	1	9%
9	12	2	17%	4	33%	6	50%

We’ll be looking out for those drawn in stalls 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 9.

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	29	6	21%	7	24%	13	45%
Second	23	3	13%	3	13%	6	26%
Third	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
Sixth	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%

We’re only interested here in the horses which won last time out.

Market Positions

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	15	4	27%	6	40%	10	67%
2	14	5	36%	3	21%	8	57%
3	15	3	20%	1	7%	4	27%
4	12	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
5	20	0	0%	3	15%	3	15%
6	10	1	10%	3	30%	4	40%
7	20	1	5%	3	15%	4	20%
8	8	0	0%	2	25%	2	25%

We’re focusing on the top 3 in the market, as well as 6^th.

Recent Form

9 of the last 10 winners had had 1-4 runs that season

Es Que Love and Professor don’t fit this trend

8 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f

Anjaal, Boom And Bust and Es Que Love don’t fit this trend

8 of the last 10 winners had won a group race

Amarillo, Garswood, Anjaal and Toormore fit this trend

7 of the last winners had won a class 1 race that year

Amarillo, Glory Awaits, Gregorian and Toormore fit this trend

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Amarillo	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Boom And Bust	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	3
Es Que Love	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	2
Garswood	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Glory Awaits	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Here Comes When	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	2
Anjaal	No	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	2
Toormore	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6

So, we have our shortlist:

1.       Amarillo 10/1, Toormore 11/10 – 6

2.       Glory Awaits 14/1 – 5

And, so, with one of our two winners at a short price, this is a no-bet race for our trends analysis.