1. Draw
Draw
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Win%
|
Places
|
Place%
|
Win/Place
|
Win/Place%
|
1
|
17
|
3
|
18%
|
2
|
12%
|
5
|
29%
|
2
|
16
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
19%
|
3
|
19%
|
3
|
17
|
1
|
6%
|
3
|
18%
|
4
|
24%
|
4
|
17
|
3
|
18%
|
4
|
24%
|
7
|
41%
|
5
|
16
|
3
|
19%
|
5
|
31%
|
8
|
50%
|
6
|
16
|
1
|
6%
|
3
|
19%
|
4
|
25%
|
7
|
15
|
1
|
7%
|
2
|
13%
|
3
|
20%
|
We'll give points to horses drawn in stalls 1, 4, 5 and 6.
Here’s this year’s draw:
1 – Sky Lantern
2 – Certify
3 – Peace Burg
4 – Kiyoshi
5 – Integral
6 – Rizeena
7 – Purr Along
2. Place Last Time Out
Place LTO
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Win%
|
Places
|
Place%
|
Win/Place
|
Win/Place%
|
First
|
38
|
4
|
11%
|
10
|
26%
|
14
|
37%
|
Third
|
16
|
2
|
13%
|
1
|
6%
|
3
|
19%
|
Fifth
|
12
|
1
|
8%
|
1
|
8%
|
2
|
17%
|
Twelfth
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
We're just looking at horses which won last time out.
Although Kiyoshi finished 10th on her last outing, the data for 10th
isn’t included in the table as we couldn’t find a horse running in the Falmouth
Stakes in the past which finished 10th last time out.
Here’s where each of this year’s runners finished on their
last outings:
Certify – 12th (over a mile at Ascot in the Duke Of
Cambridge Stakes)
Integral – 1st (over a mile at Ascot in the Duke Of
Cambridge Stakes)
Peace Burg – 5th (over 10f at the Curragh in the
Pretty Polly Stakes)
Purr Along – 3rd (over a mile at Ascot in the
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes)
Sky Lantern – 5th (over a mile at Ascot in the
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes)
Kiyoshi – 10th (over a mile at Ascot in the
Coronation Stakes)
Rizeena – 1st (over a mile at Ascot in the
Coronation Stakes)
3. Market Position
Mrkt Pos
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Win%
|
Places
|
Place%
|
Win/Place
|
Win/Place%
|
1
|
18
|
5
|
28%
|
5
|
28%
|
10
|
56%
|
2
|
18
|
3
|
17%
|
5
|
28%
|
8
|
44%
|
3
|
17
|
1
|
6%
|
2
|
12%
|
3
|
18%
|
4
|
17
|
3
|
18%
|
3
|
18%
|
6
|
35%
|
5
|
16
|
1
|
6%
|
3
|
19%
|
4
|
25%
|
6
|
16
|
3
|
19%
|
2
|
13%
|
5
|
31%
|
7
|
15
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
We're focusing on the top 2 in the market as well as 4th.
Recent Form
4.
10 of the last 10 winners had run 1-4 times that
season
All of this year’s runners fit this trend
All of this year’s runners fit this trend
5.
9 of the last 10 winners had run in the past 60
days
All of this year’s runners fit this trend
All of this year’s runners fit this trend
6.
8 of the last 10 winners had won over a mile
Kiyoshi does not fit this trend
Kiyoshi does not fit this trend
7.
8 of the last 10 winners had won a group race
Peace Burg does not fit this trend
Peace Burg does not fit this trend
The Big Table
Horse
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
Total
|
Certify
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
4
|
Integral
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
Peace Burg
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
Purr Along
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
4
|
Sky Lantern
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
Kiyoshi
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
4
|
Rizeena
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
So, we have our shortlist:
1.
Integral 2/1, Rizeena 6/1 – 7
2.
Sky Lantern 3/1 – 6
And our bets:
“1pt win on Integral @2/1” and “0.5pts e/w on Rizeena @ 6/1”
Preview:
Integral caught the eye at the beginning of the season when running
a good race in defeat on her 4yo debut in the Dahlia Stakes on 1000 Guineas day
at Newmarket, finishing 2nd behind Andre Fabre’s French raider
Esoterique. Fabre’s can be hard to beat at Newmarket and there was no shame in
her defeat, so it was no surprise to see her go off as 9/4 favourite in the
Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. She ran on very
well to win that day and looked a real horse to follow, and so it’s no surprise again today to see her go off as favourite, even if she is taking a step up in class to this
Group 1 race. She had no trouble beating Purr Along, Sky Lantern and Certify in
the Duke Of Cambridge and if that form holds strong, she’s definitely the one
to beat today.
Rizeena was disappointing to say the least in the 1000
Guineas where many had high hopes for her. However, she left that behind her
when beating Kiyoshi with ease in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot. Today will be
a fascinating encounter of the Duke Of Cambridge form versus the Coronation
form, with Rizeena’s connections out to prove that she and her fellow 3yos of
2014 are up to the same standard as the tough competition that she faces today
in the form of her elders.
As always, the very best of luck and only bet what you can afford to lose.
As always, the very best of luck and only bet what you can afford to lose.
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