The July Festival at Newmarket begins tomorrow and as ever
brings with it two days of top class summer racing to keep us occupied on
Thursday and Friday before Saturday’s climax, the July Cup. The highlight of
day one will be the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes run over a mile and a half, a
fascinating clash between some top class older horses. We cast an eye on the
action…
Sir Michael Stoute has been the man to follow in this race
over past years – victorious in 2000, he then seemed to be following a pattern
of winning ever second year from 2005 to 2011, before saddling Fiorente to
success again in 2012. Stoute’s record in this race is by all means much more
impressive than in many similar cases where trainers begin to dominate a race
by annually sending more and more runners. Stoute has had just one runner in
the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes each year since 2005, with no runners last year.
Of these, there have been five winners and a second, meaning a profit of 27.50
to level stakes at starting price.
If ever there was a year, however, in which Sir Michael
Stoute looks likely to win the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes, it’s 2014. It’s
unusual to see him have two runners here, and with Arab Spring and Hillstar
topping the market, he demands great respect this year.
Arab Spring is the strong favourite at the moment with
punters completely convinced by his nbeaten record so far this season. The
first of these was when breaking his maiden after attempting to do so
unsuccessfully on one occasion last season. He didn’t fail on his second
attempt, though, and proved himself to be the best horse in the field at
Kempton last March. He went on to win his next race comfortably, as a strong
favourite again, quickening well enough in that Class 3 handicap to enter many
notebooks before taking a step up to a mile and a half in the Jorvik Stakes at
York last May. On that occasion he showed a bit of attitude to hold on to a
lead from 2f out to manage the win.
Onwards and upwards
he went to the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Ascot. He showed real class when he
won that day despite carrying a lot of weight, and it looked clear to many that
this is a group horse. Arab Spring’s progression has been evident so far this
season but group races are a different story – he will have to step it up again
and although he looks capable of doing so, let’s not consider him a certainty
before seeing the opposition.
Hillstar is the second string for Stoute despite being more
experienced in this sort of company. He has been seen twice so far this season
and was the runner-up on both occasions, behind Brown Panther at Chester last
May and then at Ascot, a good distance behind the hugely impressive Telescope.
The latter run may have seen him come closer had he managed to avoid some
traffic and although it’s hard to envisage many horses currently in training
beating Telescope on that form, that run was highly respectable when a lack of
luck in-running is taken into consideration.
An animal of moderate consistency if not always victory, he
has placed on five occasions from six starts on good to firm ground and
although he has never run at the July course before, he has three placed from
five starts on right-handed tracks and five places from eight starts on
slightly undulating courses. With question marks over how Arab Spring will
perform in this company, Stoute still has the best claims to the race even if
the favourite disappoints – in fact, in my opinion, Hillstar could easily beat
Arab Spring today.
Although Marco Botti’s rank outsider Seismos is a non-runner,
the Italian still has Dandino running in a bid to claim the top prize on day
one of the July Festival. The main worry for this 7yo would have been rain, and
he may have been a decent each-way shot had the field not been narrowed down to
seven by his stable mate’s withdrawal this morning. He finished 6th
in the aforementioned Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot (in which Hillstar and
Pethers Moon were 2nd and 3rd respectively behind the
impressive Telescope). Although it may be hard for some to see him reversing
the form with either of these, Botti reported that he was rusty and needed to
run at Ascot, and this would be no surprise seeing as it was his first
appearance since a decent run in the Melbourne Cup.
Pethers Moon himself has been off to a flying start this
season and entered the notebook as a horse with a great season ahead of him as
a 4yo. He had a great run when 2nd in the Jockey Club Stakes on his
seasonal debut on 2000 Guineas day. He followed this up with another 2nd
at Ascot when he finished very close to Gatewood and would probably had won had
he not fallen subject to suspected Godolphin team tactics, whereby the
ridiculous pace set by Cap Orushes played straight into the hands of Gosden’s
Gatewood.
We could have no complaints next time out when 3rd
behind Telescope and Hillstar in the Hardwicke and he could be a major player
today, having done nothing wrong so far this season and looking consistent over
the past while. Although he has major place claims, it’s easy to make an
argument that Hillstar would have been further ahead of him at Ascot had it not
been for luck in-running and it may be difficult for him to reverse the form.
Even if not a horse to back today, he’s definitely one to follow throughout
this season.
Pethers Moon will also have the opportunity to reverse the
Gatewood form today, as Gosden’s 6yo will also take part in the Princess Of
Wales’ Stakes. The bookies seem to have this one right with Gatewood 16/1 and
Pethers Moon 10/1, the odds agreeing to the theory that Pethers Moon would have
come out on top in their previous encounter had the race not planned out in the
unusual fashion in which it did. However, we have learned so far this season
that we can’t write off any Gosden horse this year and with Gatewood’s
consistent record of having never finished outside of the top 4, he’s another
horse which is hard to ignore today, and although I would back Pethers Moon
ahead of him, it’s hard to tell whether the odds compilers have over
compensated for the events at Ascot when the two last met.
Cavalryman came 3rd in this last year and drops
back to the mile and a half to attempt to improve on last year’s placing. You
would think that he’s better over a longer trip and it’s hard to see him
improving on the result twelve months ago. A successful horse for Godolphin
over the years, with four group wins to his name, this race is likely to be
just a starting point for the season before he steps up to a mile and six, and
further. He has one win and no places from five runs after a break of 60 days
or more and after a layoff of almost a year, he doesn’t look like the one to be
on today.
Excellent Result makes up the field and is unpopular in the
market at 20/1. He ran badly in the Dubai Sheema Classic but has better form to
his name, including wins at Sandown and Ascot last season and wins over 1m 4f
and 1m 6f in Meydan in February and March. However, he carries a penalty today
and even if running back to his peak form it’s hard to see him winning.
The Top 4: With doubts surrounding Arab Spring’s ability to step up to a strong group 2 race, HILLSTAR looks the one to be on to
bring Sir Michael Stoute yet another victory in the race. Although it may be a
tough ask for Pethers Moon to
reverse the Ascot form with Hillstar, he looks likely to run a big race along
with Gatewood.
Tip: Hillstar
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