Newmarket Preview & Selections

1.50 – 32RedSport.com Handicap – 1m – Class 2 – 3yo+

The first Channel 4 race of the day and the opener at Newmarket is a very interesting handicap. This class 2 contest sees a large field contest over a mile, with the pace likely to be decent and set by a number of horses who prefer to lead. Busatto should head to the front early on from his low draw and although he drops back to the preferred mile, it’s tough to envisage him reversing form over 1m 2f with current favourite Llanarmon Lad.

Brian Ellison’s 5yo has just eight runs to his name and looks a highly progressive sort, with a 6lb rise in the weights the only real worry in terms of conditions. 1 from 1 at the track, 2 from 2 over the mile and 3 wins and 2 places from 6 runs since moving to Ellison’s yard, he looks to have the majority of boxes ticked today. If his progression to date continues, he will have serious claims. Definitely a major contender.

Busatto will be joined at the front by Balducci for whom the past few starts have seen a return to the decent form of his 3 and 4yo seasons. It’ probably not coincidental that this return to form has coincided with the introduction of a visor by up-and-coming young trainer David O’Meara, which he is due to wear again tomorrow. Since its introduction his form has read 131, making all both times he won. If he can get up quickly from the bottom draw today, he will again have real claims.

It won’t be as easy for him to make all today, however, with at least 5 recognised frontrunners among the field of 15. Boonga Roogetta will attempt to take the lead and wears a visor for the first time today after following up from a win on her seasonal debut with two below-par runs, 5^th over a mile and a quarter in a Class 3 handicap at Doncaster in May, followed by another 5^th, this time over a mile in listed company just 11 days ago.

Also down in class, perhaps in more interesting circumstances, is 3yo Music Theory, who hasn’t been seen since finishing 3^rd behind Kingman in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown last August. The winner of that race has since proved as a 3yo that he is a definite Group 1 horse, and Music Theory will undoubtedly be well supported tomorrow due to the fact that he was only 2 lengths behind Kingman on that occasion. Second that day was Emirates Flyer, not a group horse by any means but a smart type.

Johnno is yet another horse who, if his last run is anything to go by, will attempt to dispute the lead. He is up in class today and wears blinkers for just the third time in his career. Although he can be a frontrunner, he has also adapted different running styles and connections may well feel that a change in tactics is necessary against a better field than he has faced in the recent past.

The bookmakers are  wary of Fury despite Ryan Moore’s ride not having won in over 2 years and having produced nothing despite being strong in the market so far this season. However, the feeling is that he has slipped down the weights to carry a dangerously low weight of 9-2, the 6^th lowest in today’s contest. With the Moore/Haggas combo always hard to write off, he does look like a horse ready to bounce back at any second.

Tanseeb, on the other hand, looks to be one who has just bounced back from a terrible patch of form, finishing fourth last, third last, and last before coming very close at Sandown last time out with Silvestre De Sousa on board for the first time as he took the step up in trip to a mile. Joe Fanning takes the reins from De Sousa today, but bottom weight may just be a slight insult to a horse who ran so well last month.

Balty Boys may have slight place claims when dropping back down to the mile after an unsuccessful venture at a mile and a half. Connections can’t be faulted for trying him out over a longer trip, but he clearly wasn’t seen to his best and they take the obvious step of dropping him back to 8f here today.

Prince Of Johanne is an 8yo who has won nine races in his career and seems to win a decent handicap such as this one most seasons. He might be seen to his best slightly later on in the season, and although there’s no doubt he could go on to contest a nice prize this year, there are slight question marks over whether this will be it. That being said, he has a lot in his favour today and could well put in a decent run.

Edu Querido was expected to drop down in class after making no impact in two separate Group 3 races or a 1m 2f at last month’s Royal Meeting since arriving on UK shores. His runs so far in Britain have been disappointing to say the least, although it was tough to hold out hope for him on any of these occasions. Today’s is a more sizeable task, but still a tough one based on what we’ve seen from him to date.

Common Touch was also badly beaten last time out, and although he may have needed the run on his seasonal debut, it wasn’t an encouraging performance. He has, however, won twice from three runs with Kieran Fallon on board (a decent record considering his career record of seven wins from twenty seven starts). This is yet another attempt by him to perform over the mile, which connections seem to be confident he will do. However, he has disappointed over this trip on six previous occasions and it’s hard not to think that a shorter distance is preferred.

This will be a tough ask for Askaud who will probably need to produce a career best to win today unless plenty of her competitors are not on their games. Her performances at Leicester over 7f and York over 8f this season were encouraging, but there is some speculation that the former trip is preferred over today’s mile.

Oeil De Tigre is an unusual entry – a French sprinter making his first appearance not only in the UK but also in any race over further than 7f (he had two unsuccessful runs over 7f towards the end of last season, with all of his subsequent starts over 5 and 6 furlongs. Based on breeding, he should take the mile in his stride despite having no experience over this trip.

Finally, Albaqaa only made his reappearance last week, weakening over the last furlong or so to finish 4^th. He was far from disgraced, though, having been off the track for over 280 days prior to this run. The question marks now are over whether he’ll be fresh after a break of only eight days. If so, he should be a contender.

Verdict: It’s just too hard to overlook LLANARNOM LAD, who can still be backed each-way tonight at a price of 5/1, which looks a very nice bet with despite there being one runner too few for the bookmakers to offer four places. It will be interesting to see Music Theory who could turn out to be a group horse in a handicap, but the Solario Stakes form isn’t quite enough to go by. Tanseeb found form last time out and is of major interest mainly because of the weight he carries. However, 6/1 isn’t massive value and we look further down the market to see ALBAQAA and Balducci at 18/1 and 10/1 respectively. The former has a decent record of 2 wins and 3 places from 6 starts within 7 days of his last run, and so looks worth an each-way bet today after just 8 days off the track. So, we opt for a solid each-way bet with LLANARNOM LAD and a value shot at more attractive odds in ALBAQAA.

LLANARNOM LAD E/W 5/1

ALBAQAA E/W 18/1

2.25 – Aphrodite Stakes – 1m 4f – Fillies Listed – 3yo+

The second race at Newmarket is even more difficult to figure out than the first, but there isn’t as much need to go into detail on every runner – despite the unpredictability of fillies, a few do stand out above the others.

Favourite Criteria may very well be the best horse in the race having been beaten by less than a length by Bracelet in the Ribblesdale last month at Ascot. This was a big step up in class for her, having only run in class 4 and 5 races and one listed contest before putting in a fantastic performance in this group 2 race. A similar performance for the on-form John Gosden should see her win today, yet the only problem with fillies is that we don’t often get the performance we expect.

At longer odds, Speckled looks to be a bit of value at 9/1. This highly consistent filly from the yard of Charlie Appleby hasn’t been seen since last October, but this isn’t a huge worry to me as she broke her maiden after a decent break of 144 days and although this layoff of 261 days is longer, she could well take it in her stride. She hasn’t put a foot wrong so far, finishing off last year’s three good all-weather starts with a decent win in a listed race at Lingfield.

Although Groovejet is a horse with real potential and 40/1 is a massive price today, I just can’t back her over either of the other two. We will spend the whole weekend looking back with regret if she wins, but the aforementioned fillies look the best bets in the race.

CRITERIA 10/3

SPECKLED E/W 9/1