Irish Oaks Trends Analysis

Draw

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	16	4	25%	4	25%	8	50%
2	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
3	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
4	17	3	18%	3	18%	6	35%
5	17	2	12%	4	24%	6	35%
6	17	0	0%	4	24%	4	24%
7	15	2	13%	1	7%	3	20%
8	12	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
9	12	3	25%	2	17%	5	42%
10	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%
11	9	0	0%	2	22%	2	22%

We’ll be focusing on horses drawn in stalls 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 and 11.

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	58	8	14%	9	16%	17	29%
Second	31	2	6%	7	23%	9	29%
Third	18	1	6%	2	11%	3	17%
Sixth	13	1	8%	3	23%	4	31%
Tenth	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Points are given to horses which finished in the top 3 last time out.

Market Positions

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	6	35%	6	35%	12	71%
2	18	6	33%	0	0%	6	33%
3	19	2	11%	9	47%	11	58%
4	16	1	6%	3	19%	4	25%
5	18	0	0%	3	17%	3	17%
6	19	1	5%	1	5%	2	11%
7	11	0	0%	1	9%	1	9%
8	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
9	11	1	9%	0	0%	1	9%
10	10	0	0%	2	20%	2	20%
11	5	0	0%	1	20%	1	20%

We’ll be watching the top 3 in the market.

Recent Form

4. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
Ballybacka Queen does not fit this trend

5. 9 of the last 10 winners had 2-4 runs already that season

Beyond Brilliance and Palace do not fit this trend

6. 9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 in a group 1 race

Tarfasha, Tapestry and Marvellous do fit this trend

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Ballybacka Queen	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	No	2
Beyond Brilliance	No	No	No	Yes	No	No	1
Bracelet	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	3
Lustrous	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	4
Maid Of The Glens	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	3
Marvellous	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Palace	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	3
Tapestry	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	4
Tarfasha	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	5
Volume	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4

So, we have our shortlist:

1.       Marvellous 11/2 – 6

2.       Tarfasha 9/4 – 5

And, our bet:

“0.5pts e/w on Marvellous @ 11/2”

As always, the very best of luck and remember not to bet any more than you can afford to lose.