2.05 – EBF Breeding Winners Fillies’ Handicap – 1m – Class 2 – 3yo+
The weights make for interesting reading in this 1 mile
handicap, and should play an important part in this race. The one filly who
stood out as being the one running off a nice mark was probably Provenance who is now a non-runner, and
so we have to look further than this daughter of Galileo to find some value in
the race.
Top weight is understandably carried by Feedyah, who drops back in class following a good run to be beaten
by less than 2l when 6th in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot. This run
was her first since returning from Dubai, where she had her last start in
February, and so she will have improved from the Ascot form and is a definite
contender today. She may carry 9-6, but 15/2 looks very reasonable, if not
slightly generous.
Also carrying extra weight are Kosika and Token Of Love
from the yards of Mark Johnson and William Haggas respectively. Kosika is one of those very likeable,
honest, hardworking fillies from whom you can expect a real effort every time
she runs. She made all the running in her last two starts over 7f, winning on
both occasions. She steps up in trip today and carries an extra 5lb but has 4
wins from 4 starts on ground firmer than good, so will have to be respected if
the rain hold off. Token Of Love
will also want fast ground, and won in style over this trip at Newmarket last
time out. She’s very progressive but an extra 6lb may be a big ask.
Aertex was going
for three wins in a row when stepping up in class at Sandown last time out and
failed to produce the goods. She should run better than she did on that
occasion, but still may be out of her depth in what is probably a tougher race
than her last. Gown finished 2nd
on both her starts so far this season, both over 7f. She will relish the extra
furlong and is not to be written off in a hurry.
Jordan Princess
drops down in class on her handicap debut and may be of interest for this
reason. However, her best run to date was probably her seasonal debut at
Newmarket at the beginning of May when she finished 2nd over a mile
and a half, and it’s not a certainty that the mile will suit better than the
longer trip.
An interesting horse to watch will be Enraptured who makes her reappearance after showing rapid
progression last season, improving with each of her three starts in maidens to
win on the third attempt over 7f. Today’s race looks to suit and she will have
Buick back on board for the first time since her debut, yet she will still need
to show much more progression to win today and is certainly liable to need the
run.
Verdict: Gown may
be overpriced for a filly sure to improve when stepping up to the mile, but Kosika’s work rate and FEEDYAH’s class probably represent
better punting opportunities. Preference is for the latter, who has performed
well in very good company in the past and could take an extra 5lb in her
stride.
FEEDYAH E/W 15/2
2.40 – Steventon Stakes – 1m 2f – Listed – 3yo+
It’s Super Sprint day at Newbury and it promises to be an
exciting spectacle, but the highlight of the day for many will be the return to
action of one of last year’s true superstars of the turf. After a short-lived
and unsuccessful career at stud, Al
Kazeem returns to the racecourse in the Steventon Stakes at the age of 6,
with the hope of having another season which is half as good as last year’s.
Winner of the Coral Eclipse, Prince Of Wales’ Stakes and
Tattersalls Gold Cup as a 5yo, Al Kazeem
had what was at the time supposed to be his last ever run in the Arc at
Longchamp. On the day he was drawn widest of all and ran as well as ever to
finish a very strong 6th, putting in a run which is better than the
simple finishing place makes it sound. Many would have expected him to be
odds-on when reappearing in what is a weak race in comparison to his past
battles. However, there are questions regarding whether or not he will be up to
the high standards he set last year, and although he was once undoubtedly a
better horse than any in this field, he may not be fresh tomorrow. On the other
hand, the fact that he won first time out the last two seasons in a row is very
reassuring for his supporters.
Amralah and Baltic Knight both put in possibly the
best runs of their careers when 2nd in separate listed races – Amralah’s over 1m 2f at Sandown and Baltic Knight’s over a mile at Windsor.
Amralah was lucky enough to have
Ryan Moore on board that day, while Andrea Atzeni takes over for the first time
ever today. Baltic Knight may be of
some interest based on his progression so far this season, but plenty more will
be needed to win this race. He also didn’t definitely stay 10f on his sole
previous attempt when 4th at Goodwood.
Possibly the forgotten horse in this race is Battle Of Marengo, who looked to be one
of Aidan O’Brien’s most promising 3yos at the beginning of last season. 4th
in the Epsom Derby and then 2nd when hot favourite for the Group 2
King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot, it was downhill for him after that. He went to
Meydan and finished last of all in his first run there. He improved on his next
start but, to be quite frank, he couldn’t have gotten any worse, and it was
still a very disappointing run from a horse who came home 4th in the
Derby. He will need to suddenly re-find his juvenile and early 3yo form if he
is to play a big part today.
Another horse with some potential but two terrible runs to
his name is Out Of Bounds, who won
well at Doncaster in September before producing some disappointing displays. He
was almost 3l behind Baltic Knight
when last of all last time out in a listed race at Windsor and that sort of
performance really won’t get him far in today’s field. Unlike Battle Of Marengo, reverting to
previous form won’t quite be enough for Out
Of Bounds, who will probably have to run even better than he did at
Doncaster in order to win today.
Zaidiyn runs in
Britain for the first time and has really been thrown into the deep end, with
the race looking like a very tough ask for him. Quotes of 50/1 and even more are
fairly understandable and Zaidiyn may
be one to watch in the future at a lower class.
Another runner from France is Triple Threat, who legendary French trainer Andre Fabre brings to
Newbury today as his sole runner in the UK. It’s no secret that when Fabre
brings horses to the UK and Ireland, he brings them to win and they always have
to be respected. However, his record of one place from three runners at Newbury
isn’t anything like the incredible success he has had at Ascot, Newmarket and
the Curragh and so we must be wary that bookmakers may have priced this horse
up on the trainer’s reputation a bit too much. This is not to take anything away
from Triple Threat, who has proven
his ability as a Group 2 winner at Maisons Laffitte in France.
Vancouverite also
won a Group 2 race in France, but at Deauville, and followed up by going to
Meydan where he had two runs for Charlie Appleby. He was 2nd in the
Jebel Hatta and then was far from disgraced when 8th of 16 in the
Dubai World Cup. He hasn’t been seen since then and may have a few cobwebs to
shake off, but should be respected as he has proven to all that he can put in a
decent performance in good company.
Formerly a Ballydoyle resident, Sir Walter Scott has his first run under Luca Cumani today and did
look like one to watch from the Coolmore operation at the end of last season.
He won over 7f on his sole start as a 2yo and then ran just once as a 3yo, 2nd
over 1m 4f in a listed race at the Curragh last October. He progressed between
the two runs and had no problems with running after a break, and although more
improvement will be needed today, he’s an interesting horse to watch now that
he is in Cumani’s stable.
Finally, Nabucco is
a very reliable 5yo from the yard of John Gosden who rarely finishes outside of
the top 3. With Gosden’s horses in fine form at the moment and Nabucco seemingly ready for any task
that’s thrown at him, we can expect a decent run again today. It seems somewhat
unfair that he runs against a triple group one winner and other horses who have
tasted group success, yet carries a penalty because of a listed success and so
will carry 3lb more than the rest of the field, as well as being a year older
than most of them. Still, he’s an honest sort who has managed to win once and
place twice from three runs carrying 9-7 or more, and it would be no surprise
to see him go close today, even if the favourite is possibly in a different
class to the others.
Verdict: 15/8
looks like a generous price for Al
Kazeem - based on all we have seen he is the best horse in the race,
seemingly improving with age and with a good record after a layoff to boot. As
for an each-way bet, Sir Walter Scott
is a big price at 14/1 and looks like one to follow over the next while, and Vancouverite has claims at 11/2, but it’s
NABUCCO that looks very likely to
put in a good run and finish in the top 3.
AL KAZEEM 15/1
NABUCCO E/W 8/1
3.15 – Hackwood Stakes – 6f – Group 3 – 3yo+
Rocky Ground ran
very well to win a listed contest at Windsor last May, with both Music Master and Highland Colori behind him that day. He went on to run at Ascot in
the Wokingham, finishing a decent 6th if perhaps not quite showing
the same class as he did at Windsor. However, it was a very respectable display
and not to be ignored. He steps up in class today but is still of real
interest.
Music Master, despite finishing behind both Rocky Ground and
Highland Colori at Windsor, went on to run a fantastic race to finish 4th
in the Diamond Jubilee on the final day at Royal Ascot, with real group 1
sprinters in front of him. The only horses to beat him that day were Slade
Power, Due Diligence and Aljamaaheer, with plenty of well-respected horses
behind him. This undoubtedly solid form (winner Slade Power and 9th
Tropics were the first two home in the July Cup last week) has seen Music
Master take favouritism in this group 3 event.
Also of some interest has to be Naadirr, a lightly raced 3yo
with only 5 starts to his name. He is very progressive and doesn’t seem to be
the type that often runs a bad race. More progression will be needed for him to
have a major impact today, but such progression seems likely.
Verdict: The
three aforementioned horses look like the ones to pay most attention to, with MUSIC MASTER looking a strong favourite
and the one to be on at a nice price of 9/2.
MUSIC MASTER 9/2
3.50 – Super Sprint – 5f – Class 2 – 2yo
The Super Sprint is infamously difficult to pick the winner
of – a real lottery in which anything could happen. Although 6 of the last 10
renewals have gone to horses with a starting price of 10/1 or less, there have
been shock in that period of winners at prices of 20/1, 25/1 and even 100/1
when Lady Livius won for Richard Hannon in 2005.
It’s almost impossible to write a full preview of this race
which will give you an idea of the ability of each runner – 25 horses are due
to line up, all of them two years of age, and so unpredictable in their own
right. Towards the top of the market, HARRYS
DANCER and BONDS GIRL both stand
out as leading chances. Bonds Girl
drops back to 5f today after two runs over 6f – one good and one disappointing
run in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Ascot. Harrys
Dancer also ran at Ascot last time out – 8th of 21 in the Queen
Mary and 6 lengths behind winner Anthem Alexander. Tiggy Wiggy was 2nd on that day but Harrys Dancer looks like she’s definitely open to improvement and
could reverse that form.
At longer odds, CAPTAIN
COLBY will need to improve a lot to have a say in this race, but wears
cheekpieces for the first time and looks like a horse for whom the best is most
definitely yet to come. While some bookies have him down as a 25/1 shot, the
40/1 still on offer looks like decent value and all three of these horses seem
worth each-way bets.
HARRYS DANCER E/W 8/1
BONDS GIRL E/W 9/1
CAPTAIN COLBY E/W
40/1
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