The Greatwood
Gold Cup was an extremely tough race to narrow down the field, with a lot of
this year’s contenders seemingly suited by the conditions and in with massive
chances. Having said this, none of the horses contesting this Grade 3 have won
a race at listed level or higher and 6 of the 11 runners have never even run at
listed level or higher. Though almost impossible eliminate the majority of this field from contention, we will do our best.
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| Sound Investment carries top weight today |
Top weight
is Sound Investment who hasn’t been seen since before Christmas, when he ran
well over this trip twice before failing to produce the goods when stepping up
to 3 miles. The drop back down in trip should suit and he has placed on both
starts at Newbury, yet his record with Sam Twiston-Davies on board isn’t as
strong and I have suspicions that he may prefer right-handed tracks. Nicholls’
strong record in the race is certainly worth noting, yet at short odds I’d
prefer to look for an each-way bet.
Next in the
weights is Royal Regatta who to me is a more attractive prospect; his form over
fences is all over a shorter trip than this but he won over 2m 4f over hurdles.
5 wins from 8 starts with Richard Johnson on board is a huge positive and he
also seems to love flatter tracks. Jockeys are relevant in a few cases here –
one of the other attractive prospects is Headlys Bridge who has made the frame
3 times from 4 starts with Andrew Thorpe on board, runs well after a short
break and has won here at Newbury. He ran badly to be pulled up just after Christmas
but had a nice level of consistency prior to this and is a very big price
today.
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| Bennys Mist was 2nd in last year's Topham Chase |
Seventh Sky
and Easter Meteor both don cheek pieces today. The former is likely to make the
running and is in flying form since taking to fences this season with form of
231215P42112 while the latter was very disappointing last time out when 7th
in a Grade 3 on Trials Day at Cheltenham; this has been well accounted for in
the weights, however, and if he was to get back to previous form then he could
take advantage of the 11-3 on his back.
Bennys Mist
is in reasonable form and has some desirable Graded form under his belt having
finished 2nd behind Ma Filleule (and in front of some good horses)
in the Grade 3 Topham Chase at Aintree last season. The handicapper may have
been slightly tough on him today all things considered, though. Ballygarvey has
been running over 2 miles since his return to action after a long break, and
seems in some ways suited by today’s conditions – he has won on both of his
past starts in February and has a good record when running within 30 days of
his last run.
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| Midnight Belle is a big price but likes soft ground |
Another
attractive option (this race is full of them) is Midnight Belle who loves soft
ground, loves running after a short break and loves the first few months of the
year. He fell on his first start over fences but since then has had consistent
form of 332211 (mostly on softer ground) and 14/1 is a nice each-way price for
such a consistent horse. Saint Raph won at Wincanton last time out showing huge
improvement but he will still have more to do at a higher level here and his price isn't overly attractive. Simply
Wings was behind him that day, running disappointingly. I would think that he
prefers right-handed tracks, but he has only been outside of the places once
from 8 starts in January and February.
Westward
Point returns from a break of almost 450 days and so it’s hard to back him with
no knowledge of how he’s doing. The conditions should suit and the markets are
wary of him but his long layoff is the reason I’ll pass up on a bet.
I’m
reluctant to rule out most of these but after a lot of contemplation I’ve
narrowed it down to Royal Regatta and Midnight Belle, one of which will be our
bet in the race. Were it to rain a bit at Newbury, Midnight Belle would be a
fantastic each-way bet with massive consistency and a preference for softer
ground. With the chase course now officially good to soft, soft in places, it’s
hard to tell whether he’ll like the ground or would want more of a cut in it. Royal
Regatta is perfectly suited to the conditions and has also shown great
consistency this season.
On the hunt
for value I’m going to side with the nicer price (Midnight Belle is 14/1
compared to Royal Regatta’s 8/1) and pray for some rain before the off. Our
longshot bet of the day will also come in this race in the form of Headlys
Bridge – the market seems to me to be taking too much notice of his bad
run last time out (after which he scoped badly) and if he can regain his former
consistency he should be well able to run a big race today – 20/1 is just too
generous in my opinion.
SELECTION: MIDNIGHT BELLE 14/1 E/W
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: HEADLYS BRIDGE 20/1 E/W
