Tattersalls Gold Cup Trends Analysis

An interesting race on 1000 Guineas day in the Curragh is the Tattersalls Gold Cup which this year features the liked of Al Kazeem, Postponed and The Grey Gatsby – let’s have a look on what the trends have to say on the race.

1) Stall

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	8	4	50%	0	0%	4	50%
2	9	1	11%	3	33%	4	44%
3	10	3	30%	0	0%	3	30%
4	9	0	0%	3	33%	3	33%
5	8	2	25%	1	13%	3	38%
6	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
7	3	0	0%	2	67%	2	67%
8	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
9	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

I

t’s generally a fairly small field and all of stalls 1-5 must be given respect, along with stall 7 – with 6 runners today, the only one not running from one of the preferred stalls is Postponed in stall 6.

2) Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1st	16	5	31%	4	25%	9	56%
2nd	10	2	20%	2	20%	4	40%
3rd	9	1	11%	1	11%	2	22%
4th	5	2	40%	1	20%	3	60%
5th	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
6th	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
7th	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
8th	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
15th	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Ideally we’re looking for a horse which came in the top 2, 4^th or 6^th last time out. Again, this covers most of the field – the whole field, in fact. Highly Toxic and Fascinating Rock both won last time out while the other four runners, Al Kazeem, Parish Hall, Postponed and The Grey Gatsby, were all 2^nd on their last outings.

10-Year Trends

3) 10 of the last 10 winners had won a group race

Highly Toxic isn’t a group winner

4) 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 2f+

All of this year’s field fit this trend

5) 10 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 116+

Fascinating Rock is officially rated 113, as is Parish Hall, while Highly Toxic has an official rating of just 96.

6) 8 of the last 10 winners had had 1-3 runs that season

All of this year’s runners fit this trend.

The Big Table

	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Al Kazeem	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Fascinating Rock	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Highly Toxic	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	4
Parish Hall	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Postponed	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	5
The Grey Gatsby	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6

It’s extremely tight here and the winners on trends are the top two in the market – The Grey Gatsby and Al Kazeem. With The Grey Gatsby still available around the 6/4 mark and Al Kazeem around 3/1, you could choose to back both but I’ll opt to give this one a miss.

Irish 1000 Guineas Trends Analysis

Aidan O’Brien took yet another 2000 Guineas in the Curragh yesterday with Gleneagles, who was made to fight for his victory but showed a bit of heart and looks like he’ll be a serious miler (assuming he stays over the mile) this season. Today, it’s time for  the fillies and again O’Brien has the hot favourite in Found. Traditionally our trends analysis has done better in the 2000 Guineas than the 1000, better in the Derby than the Oaks – who knows why, but it doesn’t seem to work out for us in fillies races. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what it has to say about today’s 1000 Guineas.

1) Stall

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	10	2	20%	3	30%	5	50%
2	10	1	10%	3	30%	4	40%
3	10	0	0%	2	20%	2	20%
4	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
5	9	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
6	10	1	10%	2	20%	3	30%
7	10	0	0%	2	20%	2	20%
8	9	0	0%	2	22%	2	22%
9	9	1	11%	2	22%	3	33%
10	9	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
11	9	1	11%	0	0%	1	11%
12	8	1	13%	0	0%	1	13%
13	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%
14	6	1	17%	1	17%	2	33%
15	5	1	20%	0	0%	1	20%
16	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
17	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
18	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
19	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

The success has been fairly even spread across the stalls but we’ll focus on stalls 1, 2, 6, 9, 13, 14 and 15. Today these are filled by Stormfly, Tamadhor, Pastoral Girl, Malabar, Steip Amach, Military Angel and Pleasach respectively.

2) Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1st	42	4	10%	6	14%	10	24%
2nd	21	2	10%	4	19%	6	29%
3rd	18	0	0%	2	11%	2	11%
4th	15	0	0%	1	7%	1	7%
5th	10	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
6th	11	2	18%	1	9%	3	27%
7th	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
8th	5	1	20%	0	0%	1	20%
9th	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
10th	5	0	0%	2	40%	2	40%
11th	2	1	50%	0	0%	1	50%
13th	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
14th	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
16th	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%
17th	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%

We’ll pay particular attention to horses which finished in the top 2, 6^th, 7^th, 8^th, 10^th, 11^th, 16^th and 17^th last time out – these are Bocca Batiata (1^st), Devonshire (2^nd), Found (2^nd), Joailliere (1^st), Kissed By Angels (1^st), Mainicin (7^th), Pastoral Girl (2^nd), Pleasach (1^st), Plus Ca Change (8^th), Raydara (1^st), Russian Punch (8^th), Tamadhor (2^nd).

10-Year Trends

3) 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f+

Mainicin, Pastoral Girl don’t fit this trend

4) 9 of the last 10 winners had had 2-6 previous starts

Devonshire has had 7 previous starts, Joailliere has had just one, Pastoral Girl has run 8 times, Qualify has 7 starts, and Russian Punch and Stormfly both have 8.

5) 9 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs so far that season

Jack Naylor hasn’t run yet this season, nor has Raydara, while Stormfly has run 3 times already this term and Tamadhor is yet to see the racetrack this season.

6) 7 of the last 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1

Found has placed in a group 1 race, as has Jack Naylor.

The Big Table

	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Bocca Baciata	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Devonshire	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	3
Found	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	5
Jack Naylor	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	3
Joailliere	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	3
Kissed By Angels	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Mainicin	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	3
Malabar	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Military Angel	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Pastoral Girl	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	3
Pleasach	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	5
Plus Ca Change	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Qualify	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	2
Raydara	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	3
Russian Punch	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	3
Steip Amach	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Stormfly	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
Tamadhor	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	4

So, it’s joint at the top with Found and Pleasach both fitting 5 of the 6 specified trends. Found misses out on a perfect record based on the draw, not a huge loss considering the fact that there was no huge bias to be found in the draw data – however, stall 9 has produced no wins and no places in the last 10 years which must be worth noting. Pleasach misses out on not having previously won or placed in group 1 company, which only two of today’s field have. The Jim Bolger filly has yet to attempt to compete at this level (as is the case for the vast majority of the field) but her comfortable group 3 win last time out would suggests that she may be capable of putting up a good fight in a top class race. It’s probably going to be a no-bet race for me but these are our two selections.

SELECTIONS: FOUND 7/4, PLEASACH E/W 9/1

As ever, the very best of luck and remember never to chase your losses and only to bet what you can afford to lose.