Friday, 27 June 2014

Irish Derby Trends Analysis

Draw


Draw
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
1
16
1
6%
4
25%
5
31%
2
17
1
6%
5
29%
6
35%
3
15
1
7%
4
27%
5
33%
4
16
1
6%
2
13%
3
19%
5
17
4
24%
0
0%
4
24%
6
16
2
13%
4
25%
6
38%
7
17
1
6%
5
29%
6
35%

We’re going to give points to horses drawn in stalls 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7.

Place Last Time Out


Place LTO
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
First
52
6
12%
9
17%
15
29%
Second
34
2
6%
7
21%
9
26%
Eighth
6
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
Tenth
4
0
0%
2
50%
2
50%
Twelfth
1
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
Sixteenth
1
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%

We'll be watching out for horses which came in the top 2 or 10th on their last appearance.

Market Position


Mrkt Pos
Runs
Wins
Win%
Places
Place%
Win/Place
Win/Place%
1
17
9
53%
4
24%
13
76%
2
19
4
21%
5
26%
9
47%
3
15
2
13%
4
27%
6
40%
4
21
1
5%
6
29%
7
33%
5
13
0
0%
5
38%
5
38%
6
17
1
6%
2
12%
3
18%
7
18
0
0%
2
11%
2
11%

We’ll be focusing on the top 5 in the market.

Recent Form


10 of the last 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of the last 10 winner had 4-7 career starts
10 of the last 10 winners had 2-3 runs that season
8 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 2f+
9 of the last 10 winners had won a group race

The Big Table


Horse
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
Australia
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
8
Fascinating Rock
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
6
Geoffrey Chaucer
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
6
Kingfisher
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
6
Kingston Hill
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
6
Orchestra
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
Ponfeigh
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
5

So, we have our clear winner:

1.       Australia 4/11 – 8

And our bet:

“1pt win on Australia @ 4/11”


The very best of luck, remember not to be any more than you can afford to lose, and enjoy!