Lincoln Handicap Selection

While many people dislike the flat beginning before the final spectacles of the jumps season, Aintree, Sandown and Punchestown, the Lincoln is, whether you like it or not, the race which signals the return of the flat on this weekend each year. It can be a tough race to pick the winner of, but generally an interesting affair, and a very popular betting event, making up the first leg of the spring double – the Lincoln and Grand National. This was in the past an extremely popular bet, but an extremely tough double to pull off.

William Haggas is extremely successful in the race

One trainer always to be respected in the Lincoln is William Haggas. In the past few years, he has saddled two winners and a 3^rd from just four horses in the race. He goes into this year’s contest with a very interesting contender in Mange All, a lightly-raced type whose only notable win in the past came at Ascot last year over a mile when he ran well to beat Moohaarib among others. He followed up to finish 2^nd by a length to The Corsican over a longer trip at Doncaster and then came 4^th in a competitive affair at Newmarket.

He hasn’t been seen since then (September) but seemed to progress well throughout last season and I can see him running a big race today. If the markets are to be trusted, he’s a real contender with floods of money reportedly pouring in. William Haggas knows what it takes to win this and he has always been very fond of this horse – he could turn out to be the proverbial group horse in a handicap today.

As is always the case this weekend, it’s hard to tell which horses will be fit and I won’t be piling on or anything. His price has drifted out to 6/1 with Betway and he looks a decent each-way bet for me in a tough betting race.

SELECTION: MANGE ALL E/W 6/1

1.30 - Triumph Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m 1f

Our full preview of this race is here, but we've gone for outsider Pain Au Chocolat as an each-way bet - "He hasn’t run in a top class hurdle this season but has done very well in class 3 and 4 races and 22/1 is a big price. Some rain would be a welcome advantage. His last win in particular was worth noting and he looks to fit the bill for a value each-way contender. Also, William Hill are paying out on four places so if possible it may be a good idea to back him with them."

SELECTION: PAIN AU CHOCOLAT E/W 22/1

2.05 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle - Grade 3 - 2m 1f

Ebony Express was a very nice winner of the Imperial Cup at Sandown just six days ago and comes here attempting to claim the £100,000 bonus offered by William Hill for an Imperial Cup winner. He carries 5lb more than he did that day but is still near the bottom of the weights and he fits the profile for a County Hurdle winner as well as any horse in this field does. If his win on Saturday signalled a return to the form he had before Christmas then 16/1 is a big price.

SELECTION: EBONY EXPRESS E/W 16/1

2.40 - Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Grade 1 - 3m

Grade 1 races aren't easy but some value does stand out in the race very quickly - I'm surprised to see Thomas Brown available at odds of 16/1 after an impressive performance from the front over a slightly shorter trip at this track last time out. He looks the perfect Albert Bartlett horse to me and his price looks like real value. It's an interesting field but a course win has proven to be extremely beneficial in this race in the past and it's an advantage that not many of today's field have. I wouldn't be surprised to see Thomas Brown outrun his odds.

3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup - Grade 1 - 3m 2f 110y

At last the time has arrived - read our full Gold Cup preview here.

"Last year’s winner was Lord Windermere, who seems to love it here and is undoubtedly trained to peak on this day. His track record is strong and the race looks to suit him to perfection today. His form in the build-up to the race has been better than it was last season and he improved from the Lexus to the Irish Hennessy. I was critical of him after last year’s Gold Cup, but I do think he could run another big race today...

...This leaves Holywell. Last year’s dual Cheltenham and Aintree winner had a shaky start to this season running badly in a listed contest a long way behind Many Clouds. He followed up by unseating when Sam Winner won a listed contest in December and his Gold Cup credentials looked fairly ruined. However, his class 2 win last time out showed that he was back to himself and it’s no secret that his best form is always in the spring. His Cheltenham record is fantastic and his profile is almost perfect (ideally I would prefer to have AP on board). He seems like a very nice bet.

There are plenty of dangers lurking, not least Road To Riches who should run a big race, but I’m surprised to see that Lord Windermere has drifted out as far as 18/1 in places. Like Holywell, he loves the festival, he loves the spring and he should put in a good run. Bet365, Totesport, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Skybet are all paying out on four places so if possible bet with one of them."

SELECTIONS: HOLYWELL E/W 12/1, LORD WINDERMERE E/W 18/1

Day 4 - 3:20 Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview & Selections

Here we are. March 13^th, 2015. Every time we’ve watched one of the top races of the calendar – the King George, the Hennessy, the Lexus – we’ve had one eye on “that Friday in March”. When it arrives, it brings with it excitement and anticipation. Regardless of which day brings with it most class (it tends to be Tuesday), there’s no atmosphere quite like that on Gold Cup day.

This year’s race is a fascinating affair. The favourite is Silviniaco Conti, who won his second King George in a row on Boxing Day and proved himself to be one of the best, if not the best staying chaser around. There’s no doubt that this horse has class but will he win the Gold Cup?

Favourite Silviniaco Conti has won back to back King Georges

I’m saying no. A faller in the race in 2013 and 4^th last year after arguably hitting the front too early, he definitely prefers flat tracks than tracks like Cheltenham. He seems to peak early on in the season and runs well after a short break but hasn’t been seen since December. He also seems to prefer a smaller field. You need a proven stayer in a Gold Cup and his best form is over a about two furlongs shorter than this. On top of this, none of the horses he beat in the King George were considered good enough horses or strong enough stayers to compete in the Gold Cup. As far as I can see, Silviniaco Conti has everything against him going into this Gold Cup. That being said, I would fancy his chances if he goes to Aintree after this, on a flatter track in a smaller field after a shorter break – perfect.

Silviniaco Conti isn’t the only past runner to contest the Gold Cup again. Bobs Worth won the race in 2013 and seems to have everything in his favour according to his profile. However, we have to look at the form, and I would have to say that other than his Lexus win last year, we haven’t seen the real Bobs Worth since his Gold Cup win two years ago. It’s hard not to think that 2013’s Gold Cup hero is past his best and although he’s widely regarded as the festival’s forgotten horse, I won’t be backing him.

Lord Windermere won this last year

Last year’s winner was Lord Windermere, who seems to love it here and is undoubtedly trained to peak on this day. His track record is strong and the race looks to suit him to perfection today. His form in the build-up to the race has been better than it was last season and he improved from the Lexus to the Irish Hennessy. I was critical of him after last year’s Gold Cup, but I do think he could run another big race today.

Houblon Des Obeaux came into this race an outsider 12 months ago and maintains that status this year, with quotes of 66/1 widely available. He’s winless so far this season, runner-up on all three starts, including two 2^nd’s behind Many Clouds in November and Coneygree in February. His profile would suggest that he’d be better over a shorter trip in a smaller field earlier on in the season on a flatter track – it’s hard to see this being his day.

 The Giant Bolster is a veteran of the race, with form of 243 in the last three renewals, an incredible achievement. He returns this year as a 10-year-old, one of the older horses in the field, and it’s impossible to write him off in his bid to continue his consistency in the race. However, he’s not one of the strongest contenders today.

Horses aged 10 and older have a bad record  in the race and there are a few among this field of 17. Bobs Worth is also 10 now as is Boston Bob who has suffered festival misfortunes over the past three years – 2^nd in the 2012 Albert Bartlett, he fell in the 2013 RSA and finished 6^th in the Ryanair last year. His Punchestown Gold Cup win showed that he has serious potential (as he has shown on a number of occasions) but there may be some question marks over his jumping.

On His Own also has jumping issues but his very close 2^nd in the race last year has to be remembered. He probably would have had a say in the Lexus had he not jumped violently right throughout and he did so (to a lesser extent) last time out in the Irish Hennessy. Such mistakes won’t go unpunished today.

Djakadam won the Thyestes Chase & franked the Hennessy form

The other Willie Mullins runner is Djakadam who won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran in January. He’s only 6 and is probably a better prospect for this race next year than today. His profile also has negatives in that he should prefer a smaller field than this and a shorter break before the race.

This Thyestes Chase win franked the Hennessy Gold Cup form fantastically, as did a number of other horses since the race – Hennessy winners have accumulated 5 subsequent graded wins since the race. Many Clouds himself since won on Trials Day, beating Smad Place, Dynaste and The Giant Bolster in the process. He might not be as capable of producing the same form at the end of the season but he does certainly have claims today. Softer ground would be of benefit.

Smad Place was 5^th in the Hennessy and finished 2^nd behind Many Clouds in the BetBright Cup on Trials Day. He could run a decent race but he’s going to find it tough to reverse the form with Many Clouds.

Coneygree is 8 but has the least experience in the field, still a novice. The Gold Cup has been a graveyard for novices in the past but Coneygree has proven himself to be a real contender in beating everything in his past (in novice company and beyond) so far this season. There are very few negatives in his profile – he’s a bit of an unknown quantity.

Home Farm looks an unlikely winner. He fell in the Lexus but had no excuses in the Irish Hennessy last time out when he finished down the field and the evidence suggests that he’s not up doing better at this level. Sam Winner hasn’t been seen since finishing 3^rd in the Lexus and has shown improvement so far this season. He’ll still need to improve more to compete here.

Carlingford Lough ran well in the Lexus and then won the Irish Hennessy – he’s clearly improving and the money should come pouring in for him as AP McCoy’s last ever Gold Cup ride. His jumping could potentially be an issue, and his profile is full of negatives – he might prefer a slightly shorter trip, a smaller field, a shorter break before running, and running earlier on in the season. He’s not a bet for me today.

Road To Riches has become extremely consistent

Noel Meade’s Lexus winner is a serious contender. Road To Riches has developed a wonderful consistency since the end of last season, winning the Galway Plate, the Champion Chase at Down Royal and the Lexus, and finishing in the top 2 on all of his last six starts. He doesn’t have the course form of his competitors but other than that has the credentials to win this race and the form is strong. He’s a worry if we oppose him.

This leaves Holywell. Last year’s dual Cheltenham and Aintree winner had a shaky start to this season running badly in a listed contest a long way behind Many Clouds. He followed up by unseating when Sam Winner won a listed contest in December and his Gold Cup credentials looked fairly ruined. However, his class 2 win last time out showed that he was back to himself and it’s no secret that his best form is always in the spring. His Cheltenham record is fantastic and his profile is almost perfect (ideally I would prefer to have AP on board). He seems like a very nice bet.

There are plenty of dangers lurking, not least Road To Riches who should run a big race, but I’m surprised to see that Lord Windermere has drifted out as far as 18/1 in places. Like Holywell, he loves the festival, he loves the spring and he should put in a good run. Bet365, Totesport, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Skybet are all paying out on four places so if possible bet with one of them.

SELECTIONS: HOLYWELL E/W 12/1, LORD WINDERMERE E/W 18/1

Day 4 - 1:30 Triumph Hurdle Preview & Selection

17 go to post for this year’s Triumph, a race which has traditionally gotten the punters off to a good start on the final day of the festival, with a lot of the winners over the last while having come from the top four or five in the betting. Today’s favourite is Nicky Henderson’s Peace And Co, bidding to bring Henderson a second festival success after Call The Cops won yesterday. He was very impressive on Trials Day here when winning over course and distance, his third win from three starts.

Peace And Co has 3 wins from 3 starts and won here in January

Hargam comes from the same stable and the bookmakers are suggesting that he’ll be the main source of competition for a strong favourite. At 7/1, he’s the more interesting option of the two for me, having also won over course and distance and doing more or less everything right this term. He seems to have improved since coming from France and although he’ll have to produce even more today, he’s an intriguing option.

Beltor won the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton a few weeks ago impressively. The horse which finished 5 lengths behind him that day, All Yours, finished 5^th in the Fred Winter on Wednesday so the form looks strong. He has won twice since arriving in Robert Stephens’ yard but I have real doubts over whether Cheltenham will be his track.

Officer Drivel was 16 lengths behind Beltor last time out and looks unlikely to reverse that form, while class 5 winner Prairie Town and last time out faller Take A Break also look out of their depth.

Sam Twiston-Davies picked up two wins on Wednesday and could well fancy his chances on Devilment, unexposed in this sort of company but impressive in class 5 and 4 victories since Christmas. Top Notch has 5 wins from 5 starts over hurdles and although he lacks form at this level, he seems to have plenty to offer.

Both David Pipe runners are outsiders

Baraka De Thaix is one of two David Pipe outsiders and doesn’t look up to this based on his bad run last time out, disappointing after showing potential on his British debut when 3^rd in a Grade 2 here in November. The other Pipe horse is Stars Over The Sea, who was unbeaten in two hurdles starts when he disappointed last time out, finishing 3^rd over course and distance in a Triumph Hurdle Trial before Christmas – a whole 30 lengths behind winner Hargam and runner-up Karekaz. That form is against him but the introduction of both a hood and tongue tie might mean that we need to keep an eye on him.

Jonjo O’Neill runs Matorico, a 50/1 outsider who finished 2^nd in his sole start over hurdles last month. He’s an unlikely winner today. 66/1 shot Old Guard may have slightly better claims but still has a lot against him. The Ditcheat resident hasn’t won since his hurdling debut, pulled up and runner-up on his subsequent two racecourse outings, behind Pain Au Chocolat last time. A return to better ground may help to some extent.

Kalkir was beaten on his last two runs & Ruby prefers Dicosomo

We’re yet to mention the Mullins horses – Willie runs three, Kalkir, Dicosomo and Petite Parisienne. Kalkir was a popular ante post bet for this race after winning on his Irish debut at Fairyhouse in November but was beaten by 2 lengths when odds on to win at Leopardstown over Christmas, and lost again in Grade 1 company to Petite Parisienne last time out at Leopardstown. Ruby has passed up on the chance to ride him in favour of Dicosomo who was very impressive at Gowran on his Irish debut. He looks interesting but is untested against better horses and his price leaves a bit to be desired.

Petite Parisienne is the most interesting of the Mullins trio in my opinion – there was a lot to like about the way she won at Leopardstown last time out and 11/1 is a big price.

Karekaz is interesting due to Alan King’s strong record in the race and has run well to finish runner-up to Hargam, Peace And Co and Bristol De Mai this season and although there’s a lack of winning form there, his last few starts were all respectable.

Both of the Alan King runners are interesting, but of the two, Pain Au Chocolat might represent more value. He hasn’t run in a top class hurdle this season but has done very well in class 3 and 4 races and 22/1 is a big price. Some rain would be a welcome advantage. His last win in particular was worth noting and he looks to fit the bill for a value each-way contender. Also, William Hill are paying out on four places so if possible it may be a good idea to back him with them.

SELECTION: PAIN AU CHOCOLAT E/W 22/1

Triumph Hurdle Guide Online Now!

The Parade Ring's 24-page mega comprehensive statistical guide to the 2015 Triumph Hurdle, the last of 8 guides for 8 of the Cheltenham festival's most important races, is now online.

The reviews and feedback from the guides so far have been outstanding and have confirmed that these guides are some of the most useful and powerful betting aids for some of Cheltenham's biggest races. This is the most in-depth view of the race available on the internet or anywhere else, analysing the performance of horses based on their country of origin and age and the performance of trainers and jockeys in this race and in similar conditions, studying and applying common 10-year trends and providing unique individual horse profiles and notes for each runner outlining their optimum conditions and the boxes which should be ticked in order for them to put in a big performance. Of course, we should mention that the guides are absolutely 100% free of charge.

Click Here To View Or Download The Guide!

This guide is split into four main sections:

1. We analyse the success of horses bred in each country in the race over the last 10 years, and then cross-reference their success with other factors to see under which conditions which horses do the best.
2. We look at all of the trainers who have had 5 or more runners in the race in the last 10 years (and have runners again this year) and summarise their runners in that space of time. Then we look at which trainers do the best at the festival, at the track, and over course and distance.
3. We do basically the same thing, but forget about trainers and look at jockeys - who are the best in the race, the best at the festival, the best at the track and the best over course and distance?
4. We look at some of the most common 10-year trends and look into their relevance (some are ridiculously misleading!) Then we do what nobody seems to want to do for you - find out which of this year's runners do and don't fit the trends.

Vital reading for anybody studying the Triumph Hurdle - click here to view the guide or download it.

Cheltenham Day 3 Preview & Selections

1.30 – JLT Novices Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

We’re siding with the favourite here – here’s our preview.

SELECTION: VAUTOUR 2/1

2.05 – Pertemps Network Final – Listed Handicap Hurdle – 3m

This is a seriously tough race but we didn’t do too badly in one of the festival’s other tough betting races, the Coral Cup, with a 20/1 place and our other bet finishing just outside the places at 33/1. Nevertheless, this isn’t the same betting platform that a Grade 1 is and can be a betting minefield (10 of the last 11 winners came home at double-figure starting prices). There is one horse which stands out to me, though.

Closing Ceremony is available at odds of 28/1 despite showing very nice consistency (1121) since finishing 10^th on his seasonal debut in November. He fits the Pertemps winning profile perfectly and really looks like he could run a big race. The handicapper has allotted him a weight of 11-5 following a Grade 2 win last month ahead of Milansbar, Seeyouatmidnight and At Fishers Cross. He’s the only horse in the field to have even placed in a Graded contest on their last start, with his form as strong as anything else’s today. He’s relatively unexposed on better ground which is where some people may ask questions of him – a proven performer on soft and heavy, he made the frame on his sole start on good to soft in the past. 28/1 is a massive price today.

SELECTION: CLOSING CEREMONY E/W 28/1

2.40 – Ryanair Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 5f

We’re backing an each-way longshot – here’s our preview.

SELECTION: UXIZANDRE E/W 20/1

3.20 – Ladbrokes World Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m

It’s a weak renewal of the World Hurdle no matter what way we look at it – Big Bucks is retired, last year’s winner More Of That injured, exciting mare Annie Power ran in the Mares Hurdle on Tuesday. Zarkandar was 4^th last year and has some strong form to his name. He hasn’t won a race in almost two years though and hasn’t been seen since being beaten by Reve De Sivola in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas. I’d be very keen to take him on.

Saphir Du Rheu is strong opposition with a Grade 2 win over course and distance in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day. He has only completed two of his four starts this season, though, unseating at Newbury in November and falling at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Reve De Sivola and Dedigout’s prices are both very big. The former beat the favourite at Ascot before Christmas and was only a neck behind Saphir Du Rheu in the aforementioned Cleeve Hurdle – this is his 3^rd attempt at the World Hurdle but on form he should be a lot closer than 25/1 would suggest.

Dedigout is available at the same price despite having won Grade 2’s on his last two starts in Ireland. He has to reverse form with four of today’s runners from a Grade 1 over Christmas at Leopardstown, though, not an easy task on his first run in the UK.

Lieutenant Colonel is also a quickly improving horse but I doubt that Cheltenham’s his track, he doesn’t have a great record after a break and he doesn’t tend to run well at the end of the season so again it’s worth looking elsewhere.

At Fishers Cross and Monksland are two each-way shots which stand out. The former came 3^rd in this race last year and has a very strong record at Cheltenham. His form so far this season has been very disappointing but there’s every chance that he could come alive at Cheltenham, while he should benefit from having run recently and likes a bigger field than he has run in so far this season. 28/1 is too big.

Monksland is a seriously consistent performer who always puts in a decent run – just the sort of horse you’d love to back at an each-way price. He hadn’t been seen for two years when he ran at Leopardstown over Christmas to finish 3^rd in a Grade 1 event. He followed up by losing by a short head in a Grade 2 at Gowran in January. Everything about this race should suit and he has done everything right since his return to action.

SELECTION: MONKSLAND E/W 14/1

LONGSHOT BET OF THE DAY: AT FISHERS CROSS E/W 28/1

4.00 – Byrne Group Plate – Grade 3 – 2m 5f

It’s another 24-runner minefield and probably a worse one that the Pertemps. To pick a winner in a race like this is in partly a massive achievement which should be recognised (well done to anybody who manages it throughout the week) but also partly luck. Kings Lad came home behind, among others, Tuesday’s second-favourite in the Arkle, Vibrato Valtat last time out and although he was well held at that level, his previous class 3 wins suggest that he could put in a good run today. However, the one which catches my eye is Filbert at 33/1.

Filbert’s win at Wincanton in January was a decent performance from a horse who was previously winless in his last five starts (he had maintained a certain level of consistency with form 41453531 since the beginning of last season). The form from that Wincanton win is working out very nicely though. Tango De Juilley (2^nd) went on to win a class 3 at Huntingdon last month and runs in the opener today. 4^th Rebel Rebellion won a class 2 next time out and came 2^nd in another class 2 after that. Big Fella Thanks, 6^th at Wincanton, placed in a Grade 3 on his next start and then won a low-level event.

With all three horses to have run since Wincanton having been in some way successful, it would be no surprise to see Filbert continue the trend . The Wincanton win coincided with the introduction of cheekpieces which he dons again today. A big price.

SELECTION: FILBERT E/W 33/1

Day 3 - 2:40 Ryanair Chase Preview & Selections

This race is the definition of an open, competitive affair. The absence of Cue Card and Dynaste, winners of the last two renewals who were both aimed at this year’s race before being ruled out due to injury, has opened the door for some very interesting contenders in this field of 14. We’ve used our guide to attempt to find some value in the race – you can view it and draw your own conclusionshere.

Favourite Don Cossack is running very well this season

Favourite is Don Cossack, a German-bred 8yo from the yard of Gordon Elliott. Elliott is of course a man we need to take notice of when the festival comes around each year, a shrewd Irish raider comparable to Noel Meade or Mouse Morris. The fact that Don Cossack is German-bred may be a setback in itself – 130 have run at the festival in the last 10 years and only 3 have one, with Pont Alexandre just one of the more fancied German-bred horses to be turned over in that time. Don Cossack has impressed this season, though, with 4 wins from 4 starts, all in graded races. Wonderful Charm is actually the only horse in the field that he has beaten, but Gold Cup contenders Boston Bob and Lord Windermere are a couple of the big names which have finished behind him already this season.

The only other horse in the field not to be bred in France or Ireland is Wishfull Thinking, a British-bred 12-year-old. Although history would suggest that being British-bred is not the same burden in this race as it is in some others, being a 12yo definitely is. Horses of his age rarely run in the bigger races at the festival and are very rarely successful – only 14 horses aged 12 or older have contested Grade 1’s in the last 10 years and all of them have failed to make the frame. Wishfull Thinking has managed to win two Grade 2 races this season but was pulled up in the King George when last seen in conditions which he should have preferred to today’s.

The next oldest horse is Hidden Cyclone, 10 years of age. This may not be a bit setback with the 10yos the exception to the downward trend in success based on age – they actually do better than the 9yos. Hidden Cyclone looks like a very interesting contender. He won the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown last time out but of more interest may be his Grade 1 2^nd before that at Leopardstown over Christmas, when he had Ballycasey and Uxizandre behind him.

Grey Ballycasey has plenty of form to
reverse

The former generally peaks at that time of year, and tends to do better in smaller fields and after a longer break so he’s hard to back today, even with the in-form Ruby Walsh on his back (Ruby has a notable level of consistency in this race). He travelled to Ascot after the aforementioned disappointing 7^th at Leopardstown and finished 3^rd of 5 in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. Balder Succes and Ma Filleule were ahead of him that day, so he has plenty of form to reverse if he’s to have a say in this race.

Balder Succes on his last two starts but these were both in small fields – this excerpt from our post-racing notes after the first of these wins explains why he’s not being backed today. “The winner could run in the Champion Chase, but the Ryanair looks the more likely option, with odds of 16/1 at best for that race. However, it's worth noting that he has failed to place on three previous starts at Cheltenham but was impressive when winning at Aintree last April, and that he seems to have a preference for flat tracks. When you factor in his record of 15 runs, 9 wins and a place in fields of 7 or less (a smaller field is much more likely in the Melling Chase than the Ryanair or Queen Mother), it's easy to see why skipping the festival and going straight to the Melling Chase at the Grand National meeting in Aintree could be a much better option.”

Ma Filleule, who chased home Balder Succes last time out, is definitely an interesting candidate and has the advantage of the Henderson/Geraghty combo. Being 7 years old and French-bred is a big plus in the Ryanair but like Balder Succes, I would think that he may prefer a smaller field and flatter track – and maybe even softer ground. He hasn’t won yet this season despite having run in conditions which should have suited better than today’s do.

Double Ross - also has to reverse form today.

Double Ross is another which I’d find tough to back today for a number of reasons. He was pulled up in the King George behind Johns Spirit, Wonderful Charm and Wishfull Thinking and more recently finished over 10 lengths behind Taquin Du Seuil in the Denman Chase. He may want softer ground, he may want a longer trip, and he may want a right-handed track. I see nothing which tempts me to back him today.

Johns Spirit finished 6^th in the King George, a race full of non-stayers this year, and hasn’t been seen since. The long break after a tough race alone means that he’s not an attractive prospect – Ryanair winners tend to come into the race after a top 3 finish or something similar.

Eduard is the only runner never to have competed a Grade 1 in the past. He has maintained some sort of consistency in Grade 2 and listed races but he will need to step up in facing proven Grade 1 horses. Third Intention has made many attempts at Grade 1 races – he hasn’t managed to place from 7 starts in top company, and there’s nothing to suggest that this will be any different with his form this season inconsistent to say the least (153F1).

Wonderful Charm has a similar lack of Grade 1 success with 0 wins and 0 places from 4 starts in this company – like Johns Spirit, he hasn’t been seen since finishing 7^th in the King George and although he should prefer Cheltenham to Kempton, his preparation isn’t ideal.

Foxrock was 2^nd in the Irish Hennessy in front of some very good horses. It’s not until tomorrow’s Gold Cup that we’ll find out for sure just how strong the Irish Hennessy/Lexus form is this year but on ratings but he had last year’s Gold Cup 1^st and 2^nd and Punchestown Gold Cup winner behind him so in theory the form should be rock solid. He tends to peak slightly earlier than this though and would have liked the softer ground at Leopardstown.

Uxizandre is a big price but loves Cheltenham

At a big price, Taquin Du Seuil looks a serious contender to me. French-bred, 8 years old, he more or less fits the bill according to the first two sections of our guide. His last two starts have been disappointing but I would think that he has been crying out for better ground which he’ll get here today and he’s in with an each-way chance.

However, even more value is represented by Uxizandre at 20/1. A French-bred 7yo (even better) his last two starts have been shocking, but if we think back to how he came alive at Cheltenham in November to beat yesterday’s Champion Chase winner among others, we see a different picture. He seems to love it here, having run a massive race to finish 2^nd in last year’s JLT on his other course start. March is one of his best months (a win and a place from two previous starts) and he loves a track with undulations as extreme as Cheltenham’s. A first time visor could bring about more improvement and he looks a big price to me.

SELECTION: UXIZANDRE E/W 20/1

Day 3 - 1:30 JLT Novices Chase Preview & Selection

Apache Stronghold won the Flogas Novices Chase at Leopardstown last time out with Valseur Lido half a length behind him in 2^nd. The soft ground that day should in theory have suited the Mullins favourite come than Noel Meade’s charge and so that form looks fairly solid.

Apache Stronghold beat Valseur Lido at Leopardstown last month

Another 8 lengths behind Valseur Lido was The Tullow Tank, disappointingly unplaced in three Grade 1 starts since winning easily on his chasing debut in November. He hasn’t shown the same promise since taking to fences as he did over hurdles last season and it’s hard to envisage him reversing the form with Valseur Lido, who has finished ahead of him twice this season, and Apache Stronghold, who has beaten him three times.

The other Irish raider in the field is favourite Vautour, who has been campaigned over a shorter trip since taking to fences and so hasn’t encountered any of these over these obstacles yet. Valseur Lido and Splash Of Ginge were a long way behind him in last year’s Supreme, however, and he was also too good for The Tullow Tank and Apache Stronghold over hurdles last season. The latter has improved for going chasing and will hope to reverse the Punchestown form with Vautour from last season – The Tullow Tank looks unlikely to do so however.

Vautour won last year's Supreme in style

Vautour himself has made a good chaser in three starts to date – he won easily and jumped well on his chasing debut in Navan in November but was beaten by Clarcam at Leopardstown over Christmas when making a bad mistake which cost him a lot of ground. The impressiveness of his run on faster ground here last year would suggest that he hasn’t been seen to his best over fences with his three starts all having been on soft ground.

Of the Irish form, it would seem that Vautour and Apache Stronghold should be able to come out ahead of Valseur Lido (consistent as he may be) and The Tullow Tank. The English form also has to be reckoned with, however.

Ptit Zig is the leading British hope having won two lower level races over fences before two Grade 2 successes brought his record to 4 from 4. There were some suggestions of jumping issues in the lower level races but any problems which there may have been seemed solved in the Grade 2 successes, when he beat Arkle 3^rd Josses Hill among others. However, he ran against his elders in the Ascot Chase in February and fell at the 9^th. He has claims today should he avoid a similar incident. He does prefer softer ground however and is yet to prove himself as a Grade 1 performer, unplaced in three Grade 1 starts in the past.

Splash Of Ginge has course and distance form but was pulled
up last time out

Splash Of Ginge won a Grade 3 over course and distance on New Year’s Day which may prove to be a significant advantage with Vautour and Ptit Zig the only other course winners in the field. He was pulled up in Grade 1 company last time out but this run was on soft ground – he was last on his other start on soft ground over fences but won the Betfair Hurdle on heavy last year so it’s unclear whether we can put a line through his last start based on the going. He has had plenty of jumping issues since taking to fences having fallen here before Christmas but both of his chase wins were at Cheltenham. A left-handed track such as Cheltenham may be the key to success for this horse.

Ahead of him last time out was Irish Saint who went on to win the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase against questionable opposition – Gods Own was a non-runner and whether Melodic Rendezvous is a chaser has to be questioned. The conditions suited him perfectly last time out and he’ll find it tough to repeat that result against better opposition today in my opinion.

The outsiders are Colour Squadron and Tango De Juilley – the former has a lot to find on bare form and although he may seem slightly overpriced, I would have my doubts over whether he’s capable of firing in the spring. Blinkers and a tongue tie being introduces for the first time may make him noteworthy, but I won’t be backing. The former is an unlikely winner today with relatively little in his favour.

It’s clear based on the Leopardstown run that Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido are fairly close to each other on form alone. However, I would think that Apache Stronghold may be able to keep the advantage in that regard. If we eliminate Valseur Lido (dangerously) we have a shortlist of Apache Stronghold, Splash Of Ginge and Vautour.

The conditions should suit Splash Of Ginge but the form would suggest that he has a lot to find with either Irish contender. Apache Stronghold being available at an each-way price is interesting but he has never been to Cheltenham, while Vautour came alive at last year’s festival. All four JLT winners since the race was first run in 2011 had run over hurdles at the previous year's festival, and I’m backing Vautour to keep up the Willie Mullins winning run here. I’ve been against favourites thus far but 2/1 seems like value to me. I'd advise betting with Paddy Power on this one to get our money back if he finished 2nd or 3rd.

SELECTION: VAUTOUR 2/1

Ryanair Chase Guide Online Now!

The Parade Ring's 25-page mega comprehensive statistical guide to the 2015 Ryanair Chase, the seventh of 8 guides for 8 of the Cheltenham festival's most important races, is now online.

The reviews and feedback from the guides so far have been outstanding and have confirmed that these guides are some of the most useful and powerful betting aids for some of Cheltenham's biggest races. This is the most in-depth view of the race available on the internet or anywhere else, analysing the performance of horses based on their country of origin and age and the performance of trainers and jockeys in this race and in similar conditions, studying and applying common 10-year trends and providing unique individual horse profiles and notes for each runner outlining their optimum conditions and the boxes which should be ticked in order for them to put in a big performance. Of course, we should mention that the guides are absolutely 100% free of charge.

Click Here To View Or Download The Guide!

The guide is split into six main sections:

1. We analyse the success of horses bred in each country in the race over the last 10 years, and then cross-reference their success with other factors to see under which conditions which horses do the best.
2. We analyse the success of horses in the same way again but this time based on their age and then do the same thing.
3. We look at all of the trainers who have had 5 or more runners in the race in the last 10 years (and have runners again this year) and summarise their runners in that space of time. Then we look at which trainers do the best at the festival, at the track, and over course and distance.
4. We do basically the same thing, but forget about trainers and look at jockeys - who are the best in the race, the best at the festival, the best at the track and the best over course and distance?
5. We look at some of the most common 10-year trends and look into their relevance (some are ridiculously misleading!) Then we do what nobody seems to want to do for you - find out which of this year's runners do and don't fit the trends.
6. We uniquely take a look at the careers of each of this year's runners, analysing the conditions under which they perform the best to determine what conditions are desirable for them and whether this race will suit for them - a powerful unique betting tool not available anywhere else.

Vital reading for anybody studying the Ryanair Chase - click here to view the guide or download it.

IMPORTANT: Our guides for the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Gold Cup, World Hurdle, Arkle and RSA Chase can be viewed by clicking those links, while the rest of our guides (in the same format) for the Ryanair Chase and Triumph Hurdle will be posted over the coming days - keep an eye on the blog and follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing to be the first to see them!

Cheltenham Day 2 Preview & Selections

1.30 – Neptune Novices Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 5f

See our full preview of the race here.

Parlour Games is interesting here because he seems to be a strong contender but the trends would suggest that he has a lot to find – a British-bred horse heavily campaigned this season who has already finished outside the top 2 this term.

Of more interest are Outlander and Vyta Du Roc. Overlooking a Mullins runner is dangerous as we learned the hard way yesterday, but Nichols Canyon also has the disadvantage of being British-bred and hasn’t run over further than 2m 2f. Outlander has never run on quicker ground  and may prefer a right-handed track, while we’re not sure how strong his Grade 2 form is after yesterday.

Vyta Du Roc should be able to reverse the form with Parlour Game today based on his improvement to date. His jumping has improved and his progression is consistent so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him land a place today. He’s not the only course winner in this field but he is a horse which I feel should be perfectly suited to Cheltenham. 8/1 is a generous price.

SELECTION: VYTA DU ROC E/W 8/1

2.05 – RSA Chase – Grade 1 – 3m

See our full preview of the race here.

See our 24-page mega-guide to help you to pick the winner here.

Don Poli heads the betting here. His Grade 1 winning form stands out with Adriana Des Mottes the only other horse with a Grade 1 win to her name. Don Poli was impressive in beating Apache Stronghold among others after Christmas at Leopardstown, and his jumping looked to improve from his first start over fences to his second.

Kings Palace has three wins from three starts over fences, the first two of which were at Cheltenham and were eye-catchingly impressive. However, he was less impressive at Newbury last month in a two-horse race, beating Vivaldi Collonges last time out. A two-horse race isn’t generally particularly easy for a horse to run in, but Kings Palace’s jumping errors were worth noting and he had to work slightly harder than expect for the win against lesser opposition.

Barry Geraghty and Neil Mulholland’s record this season is 5 wins and a runner-up from 7 runners together. They team up here with The Young Master, unbeaten in four starts over fences including two listed successes on his last two starts. There was also what could be some useful experience in the form of a Cheltenham success among his chasing victories.

SELECTION: THE YOUNG MASTER E/W 5/1

2.40 – Coral Cup – Grade 3 – 2m 5f

The last two winners of this carried 11-6 and 11-12 so although the two horses which stand out to me here have heavy weights on their backs, I’m not too worried with class often coming to the fore here.

Top weight Volnay De Thaix is fairly lightly raced this season with just three starts – a class 2 win inn November, a Grade 3 4^th the same month and a Grade 2 2^nd here in December. He looks open to some more improvement which he may need if he’s going to win today despite top weight, but 20/1 is a big price and I can see him being involved. Everything about his profile seems to be perfect for this race and I’d have high hopes for him today.

Second in the weights is Bears Affair, who also may have a bit more to find to defy the 11-6 he carries, but his last two runs (2^nd in two class 2’s) before Christmas would suggest that he has claims. He performs well on better ground and has two wins from two past starts in March.

SELECTIONS: VOLNAY DE THAIX E/W 20/1, BEARS AFFAIR E/W 28/1

3.20 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Grade 1 – 2m

See our full preview of the race here.

See our 28-page mega-guide to help you to select the winner here.

Sire De Grugy was impressive last time out and is a worthy favourite but we don’t know what the returning Sprinter Sacre may be capable of and so I’m more comfortable betting each-way here. Back to 2m, Champagne Fever should run a big race given the fact that he seems to come alive at the festival each year. At longer odds, Simply Ned’s profile seems to fit the race (as can be seen in Part 6 of our guide) and he’s our longshot bet of the day.

SELECTION: CHAMPAGNE FEVER E/W 5/1

LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: SIMPLY NED E/W 20/1

4.00 – Glenfarclas Handicap Chase – Class 2 – 3m 7f

Favourite Any Currency looks to have a good chance here but he’s as short as 5/1 in places and I can’t call that value. Therefore, I’d rather have an each-way bet on Quantitativeeasing, who finished 2^nd to Any Currency when they both carried 11-0 here over this trip in December. Since then he finished 4^th at Punchestown on soft ground which he probably dislikes and we can put a line through that run. He should be able to put in a decent run today and has place claims at 10/1.

SELECTION: QUANTITATIVEEASING E/W 10/1

Day 1 - 3:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase Preview & Selections

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is this year a fascinating race full of questions to be answered. The number one question left to be answered is over Sprinter Sacre – the incredible equine superstar was on a 10-run unbeaten streak at the end of the 2012/13 season when he won in style at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown. He was truly a class above any horse he ran against and looked unbeatable when he ran in the Desert Orchid Chase on Boxing Day in 2013. He was pulled up.

Sprinter Sacre in his glorious prime

The irregular heartbeat he suffered that day corrected itself within two days, but those working with the horse on a daily basis reported that he wasn’t quite himself and he wasn’t seen again for over a year – until running at Ascot in January and finishing 2^nd behind Dodging Bullets. It wasn’t the Sprinter Sacre we had seen in the past.

Connections have been upbeat heading into this but the fact remains that nobody has even attempted to claim that this is the same Sprinter Sacre which we were lucky enough to witness on this day two years ago. I have no doubt that that Sprinter Sacre would easily beat Sire De Grugy or anything else in its path. I don’t see this Sprinter Sacre doing the same.

Sire De Grugy did have complications himself over this season and was very disappointing on his return at Newbury last month when he ran like a tired, unfit horse and unseated Jamie Moore at the third last fence. He bore no resemblance to the all-conquering ever-popular horse which won this race comprehensively last season.

Sire De Grugy won at Chepstow last time out

Connections took the bold step of running him again just 14 days later and just 18 days before the Champion Chase. The venue was Chepstow, the race a class 2 handicap chase. Sire De Grugy was on paper of a different class to his competitors and the weights were allocated accordingly, the Champion Chaser carrying 1 stone 6lb more than second in the weights Grey Gold. He obliged.

He was never in doubt, taking the lead three out and leaping over the last two like the Sire De Grugy we knew and loved last season. It was all too easy. Anybody underestimating that performance need only look at the weights again. A top display.

Champagne Fever’s high level of consistency at Cheltenham (won the Champion Bumper and Supreme here and lost the Arkle by the smallest of margins) puts him in the mix, with 5/1 giving the option of an each-way bet. He may prefer slightly softer ground or a slightly larger field, but coming back soon after his last start and his strong record in March are both positives. He proved himself not to be a staying chaser in the King George but put in two good runs since over 2m 4f, falling when in the mix at Thurles in January and winning last time out at Gowran.

Dodging Bullets 

Dodging Bullets hasn’t been seen since beating Sprinter Sacre at Ascot in January when he completed a Grade 1 double having won the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in December. These two wins coincided with the introduction of a tongue tie by the Nicholls team. The big question is whether or not he can put in a big performance when the pressure is on in the big races in the spring – his form from November to January reads 113111311 and is a lot better than his form from February to April (24697245).

Mr Mole won when Sire De Grugy unseated on his reappearance. It was based on this win that he was to become a Champion Chase candidate, but the race really fell into place for him – Uxizandre and Sire De Grugy both unseated, leaving Mr Mole with only Upsilon Bleu and Karinga Dancer to contend with, neither or which had been travelling well from an early stage. He has now won three in a row this season but not at this level.

Simply Ned could be a nice each-way prospect at 20/1, only unplaced twice from 10 starts over fences, with form of F122132123. We’ll want the ground to have some sort of give, while I expect him to like Cheltenham (he has placed here before). He has a good place record at this time of year and I can see him running a big race from a big price.

Special Tiara disappointed in this race last year

Special Tiara was in good form coming here last season, ran from the front and couldn’t hold on, finishing 6^th. He found his old form by winning the Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas but it’s hard to tell whether he’ll do any better than last year this time around. He seems completely unsuited to the race and has been unsuccessful at Cheltenham.

Somersby has been very consistent in the past and is having his fourth run in this race – he’s 11 years old though and it’s a very big ask for a horse of that age to perform against younger opponents at Cheltenham, especially in one of the festival’s top races.

Even older is Champion Chase veteran Sizing Europe – he has run in each of the last four renewals of the race finishing 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd and 4^th. He looked to be beyond winning another major prize last year when he returned to Ireland to emerge victorious from the Punchestown Champion Chase. It’s hard to see him returning to old form today, though.

Savello peaks at this time of year but has done nothing this season to suggest that he should be in the mix. He signed off last season by finishing 3^rd (nearly 2^nd) in the Champion Chase at Punchestown behind Sizing Europe and ahead of Somersby among others. This term he has finished 9^th of 9 in a Grade 1 and 4^th in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Sire De Grugy is a deserving favourite but although I'm cynical about Sprinter Sacre, he is an unknown force so I'd rather an each-way bet. Champagne Fever has a lot in his favour while Simply Ned is our longshot bet of the day. 

SELECTION: CHAMPAGNE FEVER E/W 5/1

LONGSHOT BET OF THE DAY: SIMPLY NED E/W 20/1

Day 2 - 2:05 RSA Chase Preview & Selections

The class of the RSA this year is fantastic, despite the fact that Coneygree’s connections have chosen to take a chance and run in the Gold Cup rather than staying in novice company.

Don Poli has impressed over fences so far but the National
Hunt Chase was Willie Mullins' preferred target

Don Poli heads the betting even though Willie Mullins made it clear that yesterday’s National Hunt Chase would have been his choice of target – Michael O’Leary and Gigginstown eventually had the final say and put him in the RSA. His Grade 1 winning form stands out with Adriana Des Mottes the only other horse with a Grade 1 win to her name – more on her later. Don Poli was impressive in beating Apache Stronghold among others after Christmas at Leopardstown, and his jumping looked to improve from his first start over fences to his second.

Kings Palace has three wins from three starts over fences, the first two of which were at Cheltenham and were eye-catchingly impressive. He only made one error of note in his jumping in these first two starts and looked a very nice prospect. However, he was less impressive at Newbury last month in a two-horse race, beating Vivaldi Collonges last time out. A two-horse race isn’t generally particularly easy for a horse to run in, but Kings Palace’s jumping errors were worth noting and he had to work slightly harder than expect for the win against lesser opposition.

Neil Mulholland and Barry Geraghty have a fantastic strike
rate - they team up with The Young Master 

Barry Geraghty and Neil Mulholland teamed up to win yesterday with The Druids Nephew, bringing their record this season to 5 wins and a runner-up from 7 runners together. They team up here with The Young Master, unbeaten in four starts over fences including two listed successes on his last two starts. There was also what could be some useful experience in the form of a Cheltenham success among his chasing victories. The horse he beat last time out, Houblon Des Obeaux, is a proven graded performer, while there were some subsequent Grade 3 placers behind him on his penultimate appearance.

I see the race as probably being between these three contenders – Don Poli has been impressive to date, Kings Palace has potential and a good track record and The Young Master has good form over fences and the Mulholland/Geraghty combo to his advantage.

Adriana Des Mottes is a good horse but in her own right but being French-bred is probably a negative in the RSA. Mullins hasn’t got a great record in the race (relevant for Don Poli too)with a lot of fallers in the past. She would probably prefer softer ground and a flatter track.

Apache Jack was disappointing last time out but probably would have performed better on better ground. He has made the frame in a Grade 1 contest over hurdles but hasn’t been seeing out his races since taking to fences, trailing off in both of his losses especially on his last start over 3 miles.

Adriana Des Mottes is the only French-bred in the field

If In Doubt is an interesting contender, unseating on his first start over fences but improving to the point of a listed win last time out at Doncaster in January. He might prefer softer ground and I’m not sure how he performs after a couple of months off, while his form at the end of the season has been bad in the past. He isn’t completely out of the equation by any means though.

Southfield Theatre has performed well since going chasing for the first time in October, with a Grade 2 win among his form of 1121. He will probably attempt to win this from the front which won’t be easy with The Young Master and Kings Palace known to employ similar tactics.

Wounded Warrior was beaten by Don Poli in a beginners chase at Gowran in November and will probably find it tough to reverse that form. He probably wants softer ground and a flatter track and he could be a better bet earlier on in the season.

The Ould Lad has run six times over fences this season, his only wins having come in class 4 races. He did finish 2^nd in a Grade 3 here before Christmas. In my opinion he’s overpriced at 66/1 but maybe not enough to back him, even as the longshot of the day – the negatives in his profile are significant; he’s likely to be an early peaker who doesn’t run well in the spring.

The same could be argued for Kings Palace who has been unsuccessful in the spring in the past. The Young Master’s long break before running might not be ideal but it wouldn’t put me off backing him at an each-way price instead of a win bet on Don Poli.

SELECTION: THE YOUNG MASTER E/W 5/1

Day 2 - 1:30 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle Preview & Selections

Nichols Canyon won a Grade 1 last time out at Leopardstown

One of the more experienced horses in the field is Nichols Canyon, with 10 fairly successful flat starts to his name before taking to hurdles. Since winning his maiden he has only run in Grade 1 races (three in total, two of which he won, unseating Ruby Walsh in the other). His first two runs featured some slight mistakes and jumping which wasn't quite desirable, while the jump on his third start which unseated Ruby was shocking. He may well be learning, however, with the standard of his hurdling improving greatly on his last start, when he beat Alvisio Ville (who was 7th yesterday in the Supreme) among other classy types.

The only other Mullins horse in the fields is Outlander, who won three bumpers last season before finishing 6th in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown. Since then, he won his maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse easily, lost by a neck to Martello Tower at a Grade 3 at Limerick after Christmas and reversed this form in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown in January, beating some very good horses in the process.

Windsor Park chased home Nichols Canyon in the Grade 1
Deloitte last time out

These two Mullins horses lead the market and following them closely is another Irish contender; the Irish-trained raiders have won 4 of the last 7 renewals of the race and filled up 2^nd and 3^rd in two of the other three years, and their good run looks set to continue this year if the markets are to be believed. Dermot Weld’s charge Windsor Park chased home Nichols Canyon in the Deloitte in front of some decent horses – it was his first Grade 1 start after finishing 4^th of 7 in a Grade 2 in January at Leopardstown behind Outlander among others but in front of No More Heroes.

The best British hope may be Parlour Games, due to receive some market support due to having AP on board. His recent form is certainly notable, a Grade 2 win over course and distance followed by a Grade 1 success at Newbury at the end of December. The course win will be beneficial and he should like the ground after a bit of watering. McCoy has a good record on him (2 wins and a place from 3 starts) while he is always seen to his best on a left-handed track.

Vyta Du Roc is rapidly improving

Vyta Du Roc is Barry Geraghty’s ride in the race but has form to reverse with Parlour Games last time out in the aforementioned Grade 1 when he was beaten by a neck in 2^nd. Prior to this he had four wins from four starts since arriving on these shores and coming into Henderson’s stables, breaking his class 5 maiden hurdle with ease, then winning a class 3 with similar ease and warranting a shot at Graded company. He was given a tough race when winning his first Grade 2 here, with a few jumping issues coming to the fore against better opposition than he had faced in the past. He improved when winning another Grade 2 at Sandown and possibly improved again when 2^nd behind Parlour Games – more improvement will be needed but it’s not impossible by any means.

Ordo Ab Chao is another course winner (one of three in this field of 10), producing a career best performance last time out to win a Grade 2 on Trials Day in January. He’s improving rapidly and should that progression continue then he will have a chance today. He hasn’t run at any level higher than class 3 and completely outclassed Mendip Express last time out which initially looked like very strong form but whose disappointing run yesterday would suggest otherwise.

Beast Of Burden was impressive in a class 3 last time out

Beast Of Burden was impressive in victory in a class 3 race last time out but that’s the highest level he has run at. He definitely deserves a shot at this, but has more to find with the leading contenders on bare form. He has also only run on flatter tracks so we have no idea how he’ll take to Cheltenham. Paul Townend picked up two winners yesterday, though and is sure to have the wind in his sails beginning day three of the festival.

Noel Meade is having a great season with Road To Riches heading towards the Gold Cup on Friday. Snow Falcon represents his stable here. Having never run in a race worth more than 7k over hurdles, this Grade 1 will be a massive step up in class for him. He has never finished outside the top 2 and is running well this season but in theory should have a lot to find with Nichols Canyon and the other main contenders.

Warrantor had only run in class 4 and 5 races before suggesting that he wasn’t up to listed level when 7^th in a listed race at Kempton in January. He ran on soft ground that day which he probably prefers to today’s ground so he’s hard to fancy today.

Anteros is the rank outsider despite having achieved some success in Grade 2 races, having finished 2^nd in one over 3 miles here in December. He looks exposed at that class though and it’s hard to see him perform better in a Grade 1.

Parlour Games is interesting because he seems to be a strong contender but the trends would suggest that he has a lot to find – a British-bred horse heavily campaigned this season who has already finished outside the top 2 this term.

Of more interest are Outlander and Vyta Du Roc. Overlooking a Mullins runner is dangerous as we learned the hard way yesterday, but Nichols Canyon also has the disadvantage of being British-bred and hasn’t run over further than 2m 2f. Outlander has never run on quicker ground  and may prefer a right-handed track, while we’re not sure how strong his Grade 2 form is after yesterday.

Vyta Du Roc should be able to reverse the form with Parlour Game today based on his improvement to date. His jumping has improved and his progression is consistent so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him land a place today. He’s not the only course winner in this field but he is a horse which I feel should be perfectly suited to Cheltenham. 8/1 is a generous price.

SELECTION: VYTA DU ROC E/W 8/1