It’s fair to say that the Irish Derby has been won by some
fantastic colts, mostly thanks to Aidan O’Brien’s commitment to bringing his
best performer over this trip to the Curragh following what’s usually an Epsom
success – examples over the last couple of years have included Australia
waltzing to victory last year and Camelot trudging through mud on his last
great performance in 2012. In fact, O’Brien has only been denied victory once
in the last 9 years, when Ruler Of The World failed to display anything
resembling the talent he had showed in his Epsom victory and Jim Bolger’s
Trading Leather won the race.
This year, Aidan O’Brien didn’t have one of the main contenders
in Epsom, and his main hope for the race, Giovanni Canaletto finished 4th
– he hopes to better that result in the 150th running of the Irish
equivalent. However, he will have to reverse form with Jack Hobbs, 2nd
to the impressive Golden Horn in the Epsom Derby.
Our trends analysis predicted a surprise victory for Trading
Leather in 2013, and then predicted Australia’s victory (along with everyone
else) last year – can we make it three in a row?
Stall
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
3
|
33%
|
4
|
44%
|
2
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
3
|
33%
|
4
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
5
|
10
|
3
|
30%
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
30%
|
6
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
38%
|
3
|
38%
|
7
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
5
|
50%
|
5
|
50%
|
8
|
8
|
2
|
25%
|
1
|
13%
|
3
|
38%
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
1
|
14%
|
10
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
11
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
12
|
3
|
1
|
33%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
13
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
We're going to look out for horses running from stalls 1, 5,
6, 7, 8, 10 and 12. This year there are only 8 runners so these horses are
Carbon Dating (stall 1), Radanpour (5), Kilimanjaro (6), Storm The Stars (7)
and Giovanni Canaletto (8).
Place Last Time Out
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1st
|
22
|
4
|
18%
|
2
|
9%
|
6
|
27%
|
2nd
|
18
|
2
|
11%
|
4
|
22%
|
6
|
33%
|
3rd
|
7
|
1
|
14%
|
2
|
29%
|
3
|
43%
|
4th
|
12
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
25%
|
3
|
25%
|
5th
|
8
|
1
|
13%
|
2
|
25%
|
3
|
38%
|
6th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
7th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
8th
|
6
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
10th
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
75%
|
3
|
75%
|
11th
|
2
|
1
|
50%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
12th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
28th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Remember, this only includes races run in the UK or Ireland.
6 horses have run in the Irish Derby without having previously run at all in
the UK or Ireland and these horses aren't included in the table. These include
2005 winner Hurricane Run and 2006 runner-up Gentlewave.
We're looking for a horse which finished in the top 5 last
time out, or which finished 10th or 11th. Giovanni Canaletto, Highland Reel,
Jack Hobbs, Radanpour, Storm The Stars and Qualify all fit this trend, having
all finished in the top 4 on their last outing.
10-Year Trends
3) 10 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 30 days
All of this year’s
runners fit this trend
4) 10 of the last 10 winners had had 4-7 previous starts
Radanpour has only run
3 times and Qualify has 10 previous starts to his name – the others fit this
trend
5) 10 of the last 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
Carbon Dating has
already been out 5 times this year, Storm The Stars has been out 4 times, the
others fit this trend
6) 9 of the last 10 winners had won a group race
Highland Reel has won
a group 2 and Qualify won the group 1 Epsom Oaks
7) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 2f+
Jacks Hobbs,
Kilimanjaro, Radanpour, Storm The Stars, Qualify fit this trend
The Big Table
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
Total
|
|
Carbon
Dating
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
2
|
Jack
Hobbs
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
4
|
Highland
Reel
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
Qualify
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5
|
Radanpour
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
5
|
Kilimanjaro
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
4
|
Storm
The Stars
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
4
|
Giovanni
Canaletto
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
4
|
So, we’ve got joint winners but it may not be the horses
which you might expect – Qualify (10/1) won the Oaks last time out and
connections have taken the interesting path of taking on the boys in the Derby.
Radanpour (20/1) won a listed race last time out but is unbeaten and looks an
exciting prospect. It’s very tight at the top and one for small stakes but our
bets will be:
0.5pts e/w on Qualify @ 10/1
0/5pts e/w on Radanpour @ 20/1
As usual, remember not to chase your losses and to only ever bet what you can afford to lose. And, as usual, the very best of luck.
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