Day 2 of Punchestown was a bit hit and miss for us. The
meeting famed for its unpredictability gave favourite-backers a pleasant surprise
with a win in the feature race, the Punchestown Gold Cup. Boston Bob went off
5/2 favourite after a decent run in the Melling Chase at Aintree, but we
decided to give him a miss due to how weak this year’s Melling Chase seemed to
have been. Ruby Walsh picked the winner, however, and gave him a wonderful ride
to bring his record to 3 wins and 2 seconds from 8 runs since his return from
injury. Boston Bob showed that he can beat top quality horses (with the
unpredictable yet talented First Lieutenant 2nd and past superstar
Long Run 3rd) and should be a contender in next year’s Gold Cup if
all goes according to plan for Willie Mullins’ 9-year-old, who is late to come
to his peak yet still looks full of potential.
We were holding off on a bet in the bumper unless one of our
three selections was a non-runner. We expected the non-runner to be Black
Hercules, but it was actually Patsio who didn’t race. If you proceeded to back
our other two selections – Shaneshill and Black Hercules, then you would
actually be in profit for the day despite both Argocat and On His Own
disappointing in the Gold Cup, with Shaneshill winning at 5/1 (returning 6pts –
4pts staked over the day = 2pts profit).
Today, though, sees plenty of top quality horses take to the
track, bidding to end their National Hunt seasons on a high. The Queen of
Cheltenham, Quevega, fresh from winning the Mare’s Hurdle at the festival for
the 6th year in a row, bids to win her 5th consecutive
World Series Hurdle and keep with her routine of two races and two wins per season.
She faces stiff competition from younger and supposedly better horses, but if
Tuesday’s Champion Chase taught us anything, it was not to write off an old stalwart
in a big race.
Meanwhile, Champagne Fever takes centre stage in a
fantastically competitive Grade 1 Ryanair Novice Chase, where he faces
competition from, among others, Balder Succes, Trifolium, Felix Younger and Ted
Veale, none of whom should be easily beaten. Also, not to be forgotten, the
great Punchestown tradition of the La Touche Cup continues in 2014 with the 4m
1f cross-county chase being run around the banks course today.
The last two days have seen exciting racing and fantastic
races for the neutral spectator. It has been up and down for most punters but
today should present good opportunities to turn around any deficits which may
have formed in your betting banks. On to the racing…
4.50 – La Touche
Cup – 4m 1f (Cross Country)
This is a unique feature of the Punchestown festival and it’s
really not like anything you’ll see anywhere else. The staying itself is a
tough ask for any horse, before factoring in the various obstacles the runners
will face along their journey. A proven stayer over, then, is worth considering
in the race, as is a decent jumper or a horse with previous experience on the
unusual banks course.
The favourite is Duke Of Lucca, who will undoubtedly stay
for the duration of the race but who has never won a race at Punchestown and
never even had a start on the banks course, which draws our attention to two
others – Bishopsfurze 16/1 and Uncle Junior 11/2. The former is a horse with
ability but with whom you can never be sure whether he will bring his A-game or
just not be up for it on the day. The latter won this race in 2012 and then
fell last year, but has big chances if he runs to his ability. He’s another who’s
slightly unreliable at times, and there is a question over whether we should be
backing two so-called “dodgepots” in one race.
The favourite, therefore, looks like it may be a bet in
itself. He’s a classy horse who is in good form at the moment and looks sure to
run his race. His run at Aintree last time out was possibly his best in a few
years and if he can emulate that form then he is surely a big contender today.
Duke Of Lucca 2/1
Bishopsfurze E/W 16/1
Uncle Junior E/W 11/2
5.30 – World Series
Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m
Quevega is bound to be a popular choice today in the World
Series Hurdle as she bids to add to her record of winning four consecutive
renewals of the race. Willie Mullins’ wonder-mare once again won the Mares
Hurdle at Cheltenham this year, but was not quite flawless in doing so, and it
will be interesting to see whether or not they decide to go again next year.
Although Quevega tends, in my opinion, to run a better race in this each year
than she does at Cheltenham, there is probably better value to be had in the
field.
At Fisher’s Cross was unlucky at Aintree considering that he
tore a shoe and was running with it hanging from his hoof from a long way out,
undoubtedly causing discomfort until he finally lost it. He ran on well but
jumped right a lot and it’s yet to be seen whether or not that can be blamed on
the aforementioned discomfort. I had him down as one to watch after Aintree but
there doesn’t seem to be much between Quevega and At Fishers Cross in this
race, except for the fact that Quevega has had plenty of Punchestown experience
and success, while he has been unplaced on his only start at the course.
The value in the market for me is Bog Warrior 12/1. I had
him rated fairly highly when entered for yesterday’s Gold Cup, but am delighted
to see he runs here, in a race where he could well make the frame and has a
chance of outrunning two supposedly strong market leaders, undoubtedly talented
horses but neither without their flaws coming into today’s race.
The only doubt is over whether or not he’ll do well on the
ground, on which he is fairly unexposed. If he handles it, he could run a
massive race at a big price.
Bog Warrior E/W 12/1
(NB)
6.20 – Ryanair Novice
Chase – Grade 1 – 2m
If anyone looks set to benefit from this race it’s the
bookmaker, it being a wide open affair with four or five horses at the top of
the market (the last 14 winners have all come from the top 4 in the betting)
all in with a great chance.
Despite Willie Mullins’ reputation for undercooking his
chasers, Champagne Fever looks like one of his most exciting prospects heading
into next season, with a step up in trip inevitable based on his fantastic
Arkle run to come 2nd on the line to Western Warhorse. However, one
of the main reasons he looks exciting is this step up in trip (you may recall
that we’ve had an ante-post punt on him for next year’s Gold Cup) and it’s
slightly disappointing not to see him running over further at Punchestown. He
also lacks some of the chasing experience which winners of this race are
normally known to have, with only three runs over fences to his name.
Trifolium was 3rd behind Champagne Fever in the
Arkle and looks like he could reverse that form today, considering that that
was his first ever run on good to soft ground, and that Champagne Fever was
always going to be hard to beat at his favourite track (2 from 2 at Cheltenham
going into the race). He ran to a very similar standard when 3rd again
at Aintree, and has been a hugely consistent horse, especially in the second
half of this season. He could well go all the way but looks a really solid
each-way bet.
Felix Younger disappointed when favourite at Cheltenham and
is clearly the second choice of Ruby Walsh (understandably, considering the
great lengths they hope Champagne Fever may reach next season). He likes the
course (as does his trainer!) and 13/2 looks like value, albeit in a field full
of good horses.
Balder Succes won impressively at Aintree, with Trifolium,
Moscow Mannon and Ted Veale, all of whom run today, behind him. He should like
the ground, the trip seems to be his best and he has progressed significantly
in his last four starts to become a top class horse who is more than capable of
beating Group 1 fields. Alan King is in decent form after a fantastic Aintree
festival, and Balder Succes looks set to get him off to a good start. He will
be the win bet in this race – at an each-way price, Trifolium represents a bit
more value than Felix Younger after showing more consistency over the past
while.
Balder Success 11/4
Trifolium E/W 7/1
(NAP)
Day 4 of Punchestown is billed to be the most exciting of
all, as the mighty Hurricane Fly takes on Champion Hurdler and up-and-coming
star Jezki – will Mullins’ record-breaking Grade 1 hero come back to form at
his old stomping ground or has age caught up with the great Fly, and is it time
to make way for new talent? Tomorrow will tell, but for now, good luck with
today’s. Bog Warrior e/w and Trifolium e/w are both Punchestown Festival bets –
remember, the only other so far has been Faugheen, who flew home, making 8/13
look like a gift, as we predicted. Hopefully today’s two festival bets will do
the same, even if not in as much style as Faugheen.
The very best of luck, and don’t bet more than you can
afford to lose.
