Saturday Preview & Selections

2.05 Haydock

Although fillies have a reputation for being unpredictable, in 4yo+ fillies races on the flat the favourite won 51% of the time last year. So far in 2013, only 28% of favourites have won in such races, and so there are mixed messages around whether we should be backing the favourite in races such as this one. Today’s favourite is Astonishing from the yard of Sir Michael Stoute, and although she has some class when conditions suit, she is likely to be up against it today. Completely unexposed on soft ground and having never won after a layoff of longer than 30 days, she is well worth taking on at 3/1 and shortening, and two stand out at nicer prices.

 Moment In Time 7/1 was last year’s winner of this race, and although she hasn’t managed to pick up a win since then, her runs have been to a decent standard for the most part and she has put in a few good performances. She has placed on all three of her past starts at Haydock and slower ground shouldn’t be an issue – she has won on soft ground as well as having placed on heavy. After a few runs at Meydan over further, she drops back to a mile and a half today and to what I feel is her ideal trip. She looks a nice each-way bet.

The other of interest with value in mind is Silk Sari 14/1. She will have to bring more to the table today than she has on her past five appearances, but she has been progressing steadily since her maiden last June at Kempton and the soft ground should suit. She looked like one to watch when winning nicely last time out at Doncaster earlier on this month and it’s good to see her running up in class this time. It’s yet to be seen whether she will be good enough to take on these rivals today but she looks like value and is worth a punt.

Moment In Time E/W 7/1

Silk Sari E/W 14/1

2.40 Haydock

This is a tougher race at Haydock with at least half the field looking to be in with a good chance. A case can be made for most of these, not least the favourite Garswood who failed to see out the mile on his seasonal reappearance, but in whom connections should be confident as he returns to 7f and softer ground. However, in a tough race, I won’t be lumping on at 7/2 and so the quest for value continues.

Penitent has been a star for David O’Meara’s stable and the superb young trainer will surely think that 18/1 is a big price today for a horse who loves soft ground. However, preference for an each-way bet goes to Breton Rock 15/2 (Sportingbet) who beat Custom Cut, another resident of O’Meara’s yard, over course and distance a few weeks ago on similarly soft ground, and looks like he could run a big race here today if he can put in a similar performance. That last run was probably a career best and if he continues to progress in the style he has been, he is liable to give opponents with shorter prices a run for their money today.

Breton Rock E/W 15/2

3.15 Haydock

Again a tough race to narrow down, with Steps and Swan Song of massive interest to take on favourite York Glory. Steps is probably the pick of the two, with plenty of market support for Roger Varian’s charge. He looked like one to watch after winning a listed race at Ascot last October. He didn’t quite live up to expectations on his subsequent two starts but looked to be going in the right direction when 3^rd at Newbury last month on soft ground. He has been unsuccessful on two starts at Haydock but has picked up two wins and another three places on good to soft ground, a very strong statistic which will give supporters confidence today. He’s worth a bet at 9/2.

Meanwhile, 7/1 could be a bit of value for Move In Time who is a very good sprinter when running to his best, but hasn’t been seen since last July. He won easily at Musselburgh last year after 136 days off the track and if he’s back and ready, he could put in a good run today. He is liable to have a few cobwebs to be shaken off, but still looks a contender.

Steps 9/2

Move In Time E/W 7/1

3.50 Haydock

The top three in the market all have claims here – Parbold seems to be highly thought of by connections, having been entered in the Irish 2000 Guineas and with an entry also in the St James Palace Stakes. Aeolus is good on his day but I’ll give him a miss today too. Shamshon is probably the pick of the top three, having won easily at the Dante meeting at York despite drifting terribly in the market prior to the race. However, soft ground is a worry and so the attention of most turns back towards the favourite.

Although this is considered by some to be a three-horse race, I would cautiously have a go at an each-way bet, and at 16/1 Ben Hall just about fits the bill for value. He’s a decent horse on his day for whom the soft ground could also be a slight worry. However, I would hope that a move to Mike Murphy’s yard may have brought about the small bit of improvement and some consistency which will be needed to win today. It’s a longshot but worth a bet, despite there only being 2 each-way places on offer.

Ben Hall E/W 16/1

Irish 1000 Guineas Trends Analysis

Things look to be on the up for our trends analysis, picking the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas yesterday at an admittedly short price, but also 2^nd and 3^rd from two bets in the Temple Stakes, both at each-way prices. So far this season, we would have done better when following last year’s methods of backing any horse at 4/1 or more each-way, but as a lot of people have asked to see how the analysis performs with win-only bets, we will keep a record using both methods.

Last season, and indeed so far this year, the trends analysis has proven not to do as well in fillies races – the Newmarket 1000 Guineas gave no return this year, while last year we failed to pick the winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas, the Epsom Oaks, or the Irish Oaks at the Curragh. However, the idea of the trends analysis is to cover major races (with the exception of those with particularly large fields – it’s debatable whether this year’s 1000 Guineas at Newmarket should have qualified), and so we have run it past today’s Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh.

Stall

Draw	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	3	18%	4	24%	7	41%
2	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
3	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
4	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
5	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
6	17	2	12%	2	12%	4	24%
7	17	1	6%	3	18%	4	24%
8	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
9	15	2	13%	1	7%	3	20%
10	15	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
11	14	1	7%	0	0%	1	7%
12	12	1	8%	2	17%	3	25%
13	13	1	8%	2	15%	3	23%
14	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%

We'll be looking out for horses running from stalls 1-4, as well as 6, 7, 9, 12 and 13.

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	74	6	8%	12	16%	18	24%
Second	36	2	6%	5	14%	7	19%
Third	28	2	7%	3	11%	5	18%
Fourth	23	0	0%	3	13%	3	13%
Sixth	14	2	14%	2	14%	4	29%

We will give points to horses who came in the top 2 or 6th last time out.

Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	5	29%	5	29%	10	59%
2	19	1	5%	3	16%	4	21%
3	18	1	6%	3	17%	4	22%
4	16	2	13%	3	19%	5	31%
5	19	2	11%	3	16%	5	26%
6	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
7	18	2	11%	2	11%	4	22%
8	15	2	13%	3	20%	5	33%
9	13	0	0%	3	23%	3	23%
10	26	1	4%	3	12%	4	15%
11	7	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	13	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
13	22	0	0%	1	5%	1	5%
14	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We'll keep an eye on the favourite, and 4th, 6th, 8th and 9th in the market.

Recent Form

10 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f+

9 of the last 10 winners had run once or twice that season

8 of the last 10 winners had either won or placed in a group one race

8 of the last 10 winners ran in the past 21 days

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Lightning Thunder	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Queen Of Power	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Al Thakhira	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Heart Focus	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	No	1
Avenue Gabriel	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	3
Palace	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	4
Wonderfully	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
My Titania	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
Vote Often	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Ballybacka Queen	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	4
Marvellous	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Tested	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	6

So, we have our joint winners:

1.       Lightning Thunder 4/1, Tested 6/1

And our bets (either using last year’s e/w methods or not)

0.5pts e/w on Lightning Thunder @ 4/1 – Irish 1000 Guineas

0.5pts e/w on Tested @ 6/1 – Irish 1000 Guineas

Or, if we were using win bets only, just swap the points for “1pt win” on each selection.

As always, the very best of luck. Remember only to bet what you can afford to lose (or preferably less!) and never to chase your losses. Bet sensibly and responsibly, and hopefully profitably! Enjoy.